Alrighty, a mere 143 days later, and we are on the eve of more golf at Augusta National. We’re here today to talk some PGA DFS play on SuperDraft. For starters, how do SuperDraft PGA contests differ from the traditional salaried formats many readers might be familiar with.
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- Scoring – SuperDraft scoring is very very different from scoring on other DFS sites. For starters, fantasy scoring is more skewed towards hole scores (opposed to finish position). Under the other DFS scoring formats, finish position scoring accounts for on average 2.3% of players’ fantasy points compared to only 1.1% of average SuperDraft tournament scores. That might seem like a small amount (-1.2%), but relatively speaking that is huge. Let is sink in: finish position is half as important on SuperDraft as it is on other DFS sites. Additionally, SuperDraft hole scoring is far more rewarding to players who avoid bogeys, as where other DFS sites are more rewarding of players who accumulate birdies. On other DFS sites, a 2-hole sequence of Birdie-Bogey is worth +2.5 fantasy points, compared to 2-hole sequence of Par-Par, which is worth +1 fantasy point, or 20% the value of Birdie-Bogey. Other DFS sites reward volatility. On the other hand, Birdie-Bogey is worth +1 fantasy point on SuperDraft, as where Par-Par is worth +2 fantasy points, or 200% the value of Birdie-Bogey. That is a huge difference. The overweighting of fantasy scoring towards hole scoring is a function of this scoring scheme and the fact that SuperDraft offers a) less of a reward for finish position (+15 points for 1st compared to +30 points on other DFS sites) and b) less of a dropoff in finish position reward at the top. On SuperDraft, finishing first vs. second is worth only 2 extra fantasy points (15 vs. 13, or +15%) compared to +10 fantasy points on other DFS sites (30 vs. 20, or +50%). With this in mind, we want to select golfers that give us the most scoring potential (so making the cut, even if a golfer finishes outside of the top-5) times their player multiplier.
- Pricing – The goal of all fantasy formats is to optimize towards cumulative fantasy points. On other DFS sites, there is strong correlation between fantasy scoring & player pricing, such that it is obvious that we want to use as much of our roster salary as possible. However, because SuperDraft scoring gives scoring boosts to weaker golfers (via their multiplier), it is less clear how much firepower we want to pack into our lineups to maximize fantasy points. Factor in the scoring scheme which isn’t super rewarding of tournament wins, it should become clear how lineups can win tournaments even if they don’t feature the tournament winner. In salaried formats, which heavily reward first place, a GPP-winning lineup has to have the Masters champion. However, if the Masters champion is one of the favored golfers (say DJ runs it back), it might be more valuable to have a top-5 golfer with a high multiplier than it is to have DJ. We’re of the mind that this is the component that makes PGA play on SuperDraft so much fun. It is more valuable to nail a longshot who finishes in the top-5 (think Cam Smith from 2020) than it is to correctly roster a favorite who goes on to win.
If you are interested in trying out PGA contests on SuperDraft, we encourage you to check out our Free-to-access SuperDraft PGA optimizer, which will help you sort through the noise of projection players while also considering their multiplier projections.
Ok, Let’s Talk Augusta National
There are two coefficients that standout as our most valuable weights: strokes gained putting & strokes gained off the tee. Augusta gets a rap as being a “hard” course, however the data would suggest that it is a little bit harder than your average course (in that fantasy scoring is a bit below tour course average), but with only a 137 slope rating, there should be plenty of birdie opportunities for golfers this week, and it wouldn’t at all be surprising for some mid-tier golfer to make serious runs for top-10 finishes. Couple this with aforementioned importance of rostering a dark horse that is able to make it into the weekend and work his way inside the top 10 or 20 golfers, it is definitely a fine weekend to try to pick a few higher-multiplier plays and take shots on them (we’d recommend in either separate lineups or with only a couple deeper plays per lineup). If Dylan Frittelli (or whoever your favorite sleeper is) shows up with a hot putter & shoots 8-under for a top-10 finish, he is likely to be more of a GPP-winning requisite than a Masters-winning Bryson DeChambeau.
Golfers That Fit
Ryan Palmer (1.4x)
Palmer is a picture perfect fit for both Augusta & SuperDraft scoring in general. He is super consistent, what he lacks in tournament-winning upside he makes up for in missed-cut risk mitigation. That should play up on SuperDraft, and his 1.4x multiplier will give him some nice scoring pop. His strengths align perfectly with Augusta’s course profile – he has gained half a stroke per round putting & off the tee over the last 6 months, those metrics are good for 16th & 11th among this week’s field.
Patrick Reed (1.15x)
We’ve seen Reed don the green jacket before, and while he doesn’t come in with a ton of hype, we know he’s got the makeup to win at Augusta. His recent form is also in excellent shape for the course, nobody in the Masters field has gained more strokes putting (per round) over the past six months than Reed’s 1.05 SG Putt mark. He’s also hasn’t been terrible off the tee, gaining 0.22 strokes per round.
Viktor Hovland (1.15x)
Hovland has been ok putting as of late (+0.12 SG Putt over last 6 months), but he has really been awesome off the tee. Only Bryson DeChambeau has gained more strokes per round off the tee than Hovland’s +0.71 mark.
Jason Kokrak (1.35x)
Kokrak checks in as a “Ryan Palmer lite”. His strengths as of late have been a little more skewed towards putting, our data suggest a slight overweight towards driving. But at 1.35x Kokrak has some flaws, but has shown some seriously good form as of late in facets of the game that should play up at Augusta. His +0.58 strokes gained putting (per round) over the last 6 months is good for 10th in this week’s field, his +0.41 strokes gained off the tee is good for 15th in this week’s field.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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