The Tour heads back stateside this week, to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open, a tournament that debuted on tour in 2019. As such, we have somewhat limited course data, but one thing is clear: there should be no shortage of scoring opportunities. In the two 3M Opens that Twin Cities has hosted, the winning scores have been 19- and 21-under (Michael Thompson last year, Matthew Wolff in 2019).
For recent secondary or even tertiary tournaments, we’ve noted courses and/or tournaments that yield high amounts of randomness, as evidenced by negative strokes gained coefficients. That has not been the case at TPC Twin cities. Positive coefficients across the board suggest a) well-rounded golfers are poised to succeed at Twin Cities and b) in general, good golfers should succeed.
Favorite to trust
Patrick Reed (1.15x)
The conventional “Favorite” tier is awfully thin compared to previous weeks. We have DJ at 1x, no golfer holds a 1.05x or 1.1x multiplier, Reed & Finau are at 1.15x, and then there are eight golfers at 1.2x & 1.25x. So only 11 golfers with multipliers below 1.3x. As such, we have to understand that the ability of low-multiplier golfers to outscore high-multiplier golfers who are still within the top 20 or so of golfers ranked by latent skill at the 3M Open is an uphill battle.
DJ’s 1x multiplier is simply too low to overcome. Given the expected birdie fest that Twin Cities should yield, an outright DJ win, if not by many strokes, might not even necessitate his inclusion for tournament-winning lineups.
Reed is an extremely balanced golfer, over the past two years Reed has gained strokes in all four categories, ranging from +0.65 strokes gained putting per round to +0.12 strokes gained approach per round. In his one appearance at TPC Twin Cities (2019), Reed finished 13-under for a T23 finish. You’d prefer to see a little better performance out of Reed this week if you’re rostering him, but an outright win is certainly within his range of outcomes.
Challenger Who Could Win
Cameron Tringale (1.45x)
Tringale is projecting as the best value on the slate, and the data backing is apparent. Most notably, he has phenomenal Vegas odds relative to his multiplier. At 29-to-1 to win outright, Tringale has the 5th best win odds in the field, yet his multiplier is towards the back of the player pool. Aside from Tringale’s off the tee play (which has been hardly below average), he’s been extremely balanced as of late; over the past 6 months, he’s gained between +0.28 & +0.48 strokes per round in his putting, around the green, and approach shots. Tringale has played TPC Twin Cities well in two starts, finishing 11-under (T42) in 2019 and a big 16-under (T3) finish last year.
Sleeper to Take A Flyer On
Hank Lebioda (1.6x) –
Lebioda has been a mainstay in this section over the last month or so. He’s got phenomenal win odds relative to multiplier: 12th best win odds, second-lowest multiplier level on the slate. Lebioda hasn’t been great across the board, but he has avoided playing poorly in any one facet of his game.
Over the past 6 months, his weakest stroke has been his around the green play, which he is only losing -0.04 strokes per round. With Lebioda you’re hoping to continue to ride his insane hot streak: since missing three consecutive cuts in March & April, Lebioda has made 7 straight cuts and has finished inside the top 10 in his last three starts. Lebioda also has strong course history at TPC Twin Cities, posting T34 & T26 finishes in 2020 & 2019 respectively.
With a thin field, we’re likely to see some deeper plays rise to the top of the leaderboard. With this in mind, we have to take some shots on these high-multiplier golfers who could put up big scores if they find themselves 10+ shots under par and/or in the top 10 or 20 golfers.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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