If you’re reading this article it’s safe to assume you know what daily fantasy baseball is, you’ve experienced playing it but you likely haven’t experienced winning it. We would guess you’re either revamping your strategy or developing a strategy for the first time, right? If so, you’ve come to the right place. We’re going to break down metrics to consider and even some things you might have overlooked or not known about.
How Do Weather Conditions Affect The Performance In Baseball
- Alright, let’s start with one of the more overlooked things in daily fantasy sports, the weather. NHL, NBA, and even some NFL stadiums are all played either indoors or under retractable roofs, and because of that, weather forecasts have very little effect on them. The weather itself doesn’t actually affect the indoor events at all, however, the general atmosphere is inescapable. Denver Nuggets high altitude arena will still be high altitude whether it is indoors or outdoors. With that being said, NFL is one of the few sports that is played in all weather conditions if it is outdoors. Lambeau Field, home of the Green Bay Packers, is famous for the snowy games and Lambeau Leaps that occur there.
- In the MLB, only eight of the thirty teams in the entire league have retractable roofs: T-Mobile Park (Mariners), Rogers Centre (BlueJays), Minute Maid Park (Astros), Chase Field (Diamondbacks), LoanDepot Park (Marlins), Globe Life Field (Rangers), American Family Field (Brewers) Milwaukee, and Tropicana Field (Rays). A retractable roof doesn’t solve all of the climate issues, but one major thing it does negate is wind. When drafting your lineup and you’re stuck between two hitters with similar stats, draft the one who’s playing at a field where the wind is blowing out. That outward breeze can carry, what should have been a fly out to center field, clear over the fence.
- Sticking to the weather, let’s discuss climate. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that in warmer weather games the games result in higher scores. That means hitters are performing better and pitchers are performing worse. It is generally a good principle to roster hitters in warmer climates and pitchers in colder climates.
- The second thing to consider is the air density, aka elevation. With lower air density, the ball is able to travel further, which will typically result in higher scoring ball games. When possible, roster hitters who are in higher altitude fields and pitchers in lower altitude fields like Tropicana Field, home of the Rays.
- Finally, and one we feel is obvious but worth noting, is to look at the ball park dimensions. Yankee Stadium is only 314ft down the right-field line, 318ft down the left-field line, and straight away center field is only 408ft.
- For big-league hitters, 314ft and 318ft are both very “short porches” down the lines and are much easier to hit home runs there. On the other hand, the San Francisco Giants play in MetLife stadium that has, what is known as, “Triples Alley” that is 420ft away! Even for professional baseball players, hitting a ball over the fence that far is away is a tall task.
- Consider this when you’re thinking about how to draft your fantasy baseball lineup. It is smart to draft a smaller, speedy player who is playing at MetLife Stadium in San Francisco over a big power hitter who is playing there. Vice versa, it would be foolish to draft a smaller, speedy player who is playing in Yankee Stadium when big power hitters can easily hit home runs.
What To Consider For A Winning Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy?
Hitters
The StatCast era has been a gold mine of information for Daily Fantasy Sports Players. In baseball specifically, the numbers that are tracked are nearly endless. Let’s look at a few key stats to consider when drafting hitters.
First, you want to look at their split. If Mike Trout is facing a submarine right-handed starting pitcher that day, you should look at his historical stats against other submarine right-handed pitchers. Despite him being one of the best players in the world, if he doesn’t perform well against an arm like that historically, avoid selecting him that day.
The second thing to consider is Isolated Power (ISO). Isolated Power is Slugging Percentage – Batting Average. This ISO stat provides a player’s extra-base hits per at-bat. Essentially, what are that specific batter’s chances of having an extra-base hit that day. It is recommended that you target players with an ISO of .170 or higher. Extra base hits are particularly important because not only is a player rewarded additional points for each additional base, it provides more opportunities for base runners to score, therefore giving your player even more points!
The final two things to consider are Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and Stolen Base Attempts Per At Bat. Weighted on base average will help to shed light on a player’s value. Because a double is better than a single, a triple is better than a double, a home run is better than a triple, and a grand slam trumps all, the wOBA helps to illuminate this.
A players batting average considers all hits the exact same so it can be a bit deceptive, but wOBA is a great way to find value players who are not typically home run prone but may hit a lot of doubles and score a lot of runs.
Stolen Base Attempts Per At Bat is our other stat worth considering. This tells us the likelihood of a player trying to steal a base, which is a stat that is vastly overlooked in today’s game that is dominated by long home runs. Speed never slumps and is something to remember to swipe a few extra fantasy points.
Pitchers
When drafting pitchers, it’s a bit less complex of a process than drafting hitters.
Don’t forget what we mentioned above, pitchers perform better in lower altitudes with thicker air density, and in colder climates. Beyond that high level, one of the stats to consider is a pitcher’s strikeout percentage. On SuperDraft, a pitcher receives 2 points per strikeout and -.5 points per hit and walk allowed. Obviously, a pitcher with a higher strikeout percentage will likely have a lower walk/batting average against him. This provides a great value for guys with a higher strikeout percentage, aka “K rate”.
Secondly, look at the money lines. A pitcher who is likely to win the game is going to have a higher moneyline (-150 or more). Draft those guys. Because a pitcher will receive an additional 4 points per win, it’s worth stacking the deck in your favor.
Winning Daily Fantasy Baseball Tips
- Whenever possible, stack your hitters. If you can select multiple hitters from the same team, we recommend doing this. They have more opportunities to drive each other in which will provide you with more fantasy points.
- When looking up historical data, look at a full season worth of data and not recent performance. A player can be on a hot streak or a cold streak, but tenured averages are more accurate.
- Players with higher batted ball percentages may be worth looking at. They will be putting the ball in play more, taking away strikeout opportunities from your opponents and increasing their chances of finding a hit, whether it’s a lucky hit or not.
- Stolen Base Attempts Per At Bat applies to pitchers as well. If a pitcher is known to give up a lot of stolen bases, it puts runners in scoring position. With a pitcher receiving -2 points per earned run, the less often there are guys in scoring position, the better.
Use this information to help put together your strongest lineup. Get in on your Daily Fantasy Baseball Action on SuperDraft and start winning some cash today!
