The high scoring affair in the MLB this evening is expected come in the mile high city of Denver in a matchup between the Rockies and Reds. Which players from this game should you be looking at? We got those answers for you!
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Projecting hitters over the course of the day can be a volatile undertaking. Starting lineups & batting orders aren’t typically announced until 90+ minutes before first pitch, and actual lineups can be very different from what is expected hours before game time. Batting order can have a major impact on projectability, so top plays (particularly hitters) which are highlighted in the afternoon can become weaker plays closer to lock if lineups, weather, or pitching matchups change over the course of the day. When in doubt, refer to the top projections table at the bottom of this article which will be updated periodically as projections change.
Pitchers
Christian Javier (1.95) – An interesting component about this slate is that two of the better pitchers on slate (Luis Castillo & Trevor Rogers) are pitching at two of the more hitter friendly parks in baseball (Colorado & Arizona, respectively). Castillo & Rodgers have the two highest two-year whiff rates on the slate, followed by Jameson Taillon & Garret Richards. Javier slates in just behind Taillon & Richards with a two-year whiff rate of 23% – which is good but not great. Javier’s xwOBA is what really stands out, second lowest on the slate behind only Rodgers. So far this year Javier has had a little bit better swing-and-miss stuff but is ceding slightly better contact. Of course the most projectable component of Javier is the 1.95x price tag – he is an above average fantasy option at a bargain price.
Hitters
Reds Stacks (Jesse Winker 1.5x, Nick Senzel 1.45x, Jonathan India 1.65, Tyler Stevenson 1.65x, Kyle Farmer 1.65x) – The Reds are one off the more potent offenses in the league, ranking top-5-to-10 in most offensive team categories. Besides a great park to hit at, the Reds go up against Chi Chi Gonzalez who is a great pitcher to face anywhere. Gonzalez’ 17.3% two-year whiff rate is lowest among pitchers on the main slate, his 10% walk rate is highest, his xwOBA allowed is the third highest among starters. So a great spot for these Cincinnati hitters. Our projections lean towards the high-multiplier options that are projected to hit towards the bottom of the order. There is a little concern of reduced at bat equity when the Reds are on the road (guaranteed at least 9 innings) and in such a high total environment where they figure to cycle through the lineup many times.
Fades
Luis Castillo (1.5x) – Castillo has great stuff, one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers on the slate. But it is hard to feel good about Castillo who has the highest multiplier on the slate, and is pitching at Coors, a pitcher’s worst nightmare. Sometimes playing a discounted pitcher at Coors can be tempting, tonight is not the night for it, as there is really no discount on Castillo.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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