Sunday Night Football in Week 5 is bound to provide us with some fireworks, as we’re treated with an explosive matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. The implied total sits at 56 points and with a spread of only three points. It’s sure to be a back-and-forth offensive affair that leads to tons of fantasy production.
Below are my top three plays for the single-game DFS slate on SuperDraft DFS.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (1.3x score multiplier)
The beauty of being a quarterback on a slate that features Patrick Mahomes is the fact that outside of Mahomes, everyone else feels a bit underpriced. That holds true here with Allen pegged with a 1.3x multiplier.
The Chiefs have been one of, if not the worst pass defense in the NFL through four weeks. They’ve allowed the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate (80.8%), the third-most yards per attempt (8.77), the third-most yards after the catch (685), and the sixth-most passing yards (307 per game). Given a date with Allen and the Bills, those numbers aren’t likely to improve. A high-total game with a tight spread is exactly the type of environment that Allen thrives in. It makes him a clear-cut favorite for my champion spot in my lineups on Sunday night.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (1.5x)
Pairing Allen with a wide receiver makes sense given the struggles the Chiefs’ secondary has endured, and getting Diggs at a 1.5x multiplier is a great value.
The Chiefs are giving up the seventh-highest first-read completion rate (71.4%) and although Diggs has been somewhat disappointing to open the season, he still has a top-15 first-read rate (30%), a number that leads the Bills passing game. He’s logged at least 10 targets or a touchdown in all four games this season and given how this game is expected to go, he should be in for another voluminous role that’s coupled with a massive amount of upside.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (1.3x)
Similar to Diggs, I want to target wide receivers with generous multipliers. Hill fits that mold. Week 4 marked his second game of the season with at least 180 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Yes, you read that right. Half of his games have been absolutely nuclear outings.
The issue, however, has been the fact that Weeks 2 and 3 saw Hill record a total of eight catches for 70 yards. His floor is low in this offense, but his ceiling is sky-high. Despite having a difficult matchup with the Bills cornerbacks, Hill has shown success in the two meetings he’s had against the Bills since 2019. Over the course of those two tilts, he’s averaged 96 yards per game on six catches and seven targets. While these aren’t close to the numbers he showed in Weeks 1 and 4 this season, it offers a stable floor for a receiver with more upside than 99% of pass-catchers in the NFL.
Champion Rankings:
- Josh Allen (1.95x)
- Patrick Mahomes (1.5x)
- Stefon Diggs (2.25x)
- Tyreek Hill (1.95x)
- Travis Kelce (1.6x)
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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