With a strong eight-game slate tonight, we’ll sort through the best pitching options for tonight. With a return to some higher multiplier pitchers including one on a tear. Finally, with no double-digit run total projections tonight, we’ll walk through which offense we think can take advantage of weaker starting pitching.
Pitchers
Sean Manaea (1.9x) – SP – OAK at SEA –
Manaea has had a strong year despite a 5-5 record in the Win-Loss column, his 3.28 ERA and 115 K’s are 21st and 29th respectively in the MLB. Manaea had a monster month of June posting a 1.13 ERA in five starts, but has struggled a bit in his 3 starts in July with an 0-2 record and a 5.29 ERA. Manaea’s strength is his control and ability to pitch late into games, his walk rate is 4.6% compared to the slate average of 7.9%, and he averages 92 pitches a game compared to the 81 average.
The Mariners have been awful offensively this season despite playing above .500 baseball. Their team batting average of .219 and OBP of .294 are both last in the MLB. This game has the chance for Manaea to reach double-digit strikeouts, which he’s done twice this season. If the Athletic’s can provide some run support, look for Manaea to get the win on a high multiplier and play a big role in winning line-ups.
Kwang Hyun Kim (1.95x) – SP – STL vs. CHC –
Kim is on an absolute tear his past three starts, and hard to fade with his 1.95x multiplier tonight. In July, he has 3 starts, with 19 innings, 11 hits, and 0 earned runs. He’s gotten the win in all three appearances. July 10th he faced this same Cub’s team and went 6 innings, with 5 hits, and 7 strikeouts.
Kim has below average whiff numbers, however, with this match-up against the Cubs who have the 5th most strikeout’s in the MLB, it’s a good opportunity to break his season-high of 8. Look for Kim to keep up the momentum from his last 3 starts and give the Cardinals a great chance to win.
Hitters
Atlanta Braves Stacks (Dansby Swanson 1.3x, Freddie Freeman 1.25x, Joc Pederson 1.3x) at Philadelphia Phillies –
The Braves get one of the more favorable pitching match-ups tonight taking on Matt Moore. Moore has pitched a combination of relief work and starting pitching, with around 4 innings pitched in his last 4 outings. Moore has a season ERA of 5.25 and the highest barrel rate allowed on the slate tonight at 11.1% compared to the 7.8% average.
The top of the Braves lineup is struggling after losing Acuna but in a trade bringing Joc Pederson to the Braves, they have someone to be excited about. Pederson’s found some success in his first games with the team and will look to keep it going tonight. Freeman and Swanson are perennial centerpieces of this Braves team and will look to keep the Braves’ hopes at a playoff race alive. Tonight’s match-up is favorable for the top of this order, and look for them to take advantage of Moore early.
Fades
Philadelphia Phillies Stacks (Didi Gregorious 1.2x, Andrew McCutchen 1.3x, Ronald Torreyes 1.7x) vs Atlanta Braves –
Fading the opposing offense to our hitter stack tonight, the Phillies have to face Braves ace, Charlie Morton. Morton’s had a solid year with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 8-3 record. Morton’s whiff rate of 27.3% is well above the slate average of 23.1% and his 5.6% barrel rate is one of the lowest on the card today.
While the Phillies offense has had some moderate success this season, this match-up poses to be a rough one, and it’s better to look elsewhere for offensive production.
Projections
In this Thursday night main slate, look for Sean Manaea to propel the A’s to a win against division rival Seattle Mariners. Expect Kwang Hyun Kim to keep up his hot streak in July and extend on his 19 consecutive scoreless innings. Finally, look for the Braves top of the order to have some offensive success against Matt Moore and the Phillies tonight.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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