In the 9-game Main Slate tonight, look to the more well-established pitchers to help propel you to a winning line-up. There are plenty of struggling teams tonight, with the Cubs on a big losing streak, and the Yankees getting torn up in the media. Should we hope for a turnaround, or take advantage of these struggling teams tonight?
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (1.45x) – SP – PHI at CHC –
Wheeler has been dominant this season, his 2.05 ERA is 4th best in the MLB, and his 139 strikeouts lead the MLB. Wheeler is not afraid to pitch late into games, his average pitches per game this year is 103.4, which is 20% higher than the 82.9 slate average. He’s been able to go late into games with his strong command, his walk rate is only 5.5% which is significantly below the 7.8% average for the other pitchers on the slate.
Wheeler was lights out in June, despite a 2-2 record he had a 1.44 ERA and had quality starts in 4 of the 5 games; with two of those outings being 7 innings plus, 0 earned run performances. Wheeler is coming off a monster 7.2 inning, 0 earned runs, and 9 strikeouts last week against the Padres. We’ve faded the Cubs a lot lately with their offensive struggles, and this sets up to be a super favorable match-up for Wheeler and the Phillies.
Domingo German (1.7x) – P – NYY at SEA –
Domingo German has struggled this season and has been a contributor to the beating the Yankees have been taking in the press. Despite his struggles, his underlying numbers are solid, whiff rate of 25.6% compared to the slate average of 23%, a walk rate of 4.5% compared to the slate average of 7.8%. While the Yankees have struggled, they’re coming off a 12 run slugfest against the Mariners, and look for them to keep the ball rolling tonight and provide some run support for German tonight.
The Mariner’s have the lowest-ranked offense by batting average, and a whiff rate and contact rate a few percentage points above and below the slate average respectively. Look for German to return to his May form where he had a 2.4 ERA and the Yankees won in 4 of his 5 appearances.
Hitters
Toronto Blue Jays Stacks (Bo Bichette 1.3x, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.3x, Marcus Semien 1.05x) at Baltimore Orioles –
The Blue Jays have been a top offense in the MLB this season. They are a top 5 in team batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Their offensive success has been a result of the three-headed monster they have at the top of the order. Bo Bichette is batting .290 with 15 home runs and 54 RBI’s. Semien has 21 home runs, tied for 6th in the MLB, and a .282 batting average with a .883 on-base percentage. Finally, Vlad Jr. has been out of control this year, in the race for a triple crown. He’s second in batting average hitting .336, 2nd in home runs with 28, and tied for first with 71 RBI’s.
The Blue Jay’s get a dream match-up tonight against 3-9 Matt Harvey who’s been getting shelled this season. He had an 8.37 ERA in June, down from his even worse 9.64 ERA in May, and there’s no reason to expect improvement tonight against a monster Blue Jays team. Look to take advantage of this match-up and get the Blue Jays top of the order in your line-ups.
Fades
Chicago Cubs Stacks (Ian Happ 1.25x, Jason Heyward 1.1x, Wilson Contreras 1.2x, Anthony Rizzo 1.1x) vs. Philadelphia Phillies –
Coming off 11 losses in a row, this is a miserable match-up to try and get the ball rolling in the other direction. As we alluded to earlier, Wheeler has been dominant this season, and the Cubs have been awful. Our projections have the 4 above-listed hitters as the 4 lowest valued players on the slate tonight. Simply with the way this team has been performing, against a top pitcher in the MLB, their multipliers are too overvalued.
The Cubs have one of the lowest line-up contact rates in baseball at 68.5% compared to the slate average of 73.4% and don’t expect that number to improve tonight. Avoid the heart of the Cubs order, and the whole line-up for what it’s worth. Wait to see an improvement from this team before you consider playing them in the future.
Projections
Look for the red hot Blue Jays offense to keep it going tonight against an awful Orioles team with a struggling Matt Harvey on the mound. With Zack Wheeler getting on the hill tonight against the struggling Cubs, look for him to take advantage of the Cub’s line-up and avoid playing any Cub’s hitters. Finally, with the Yankee’s showing signs of life, look for them to get a win behind a strong pitching performance from Domingo German.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
Click here to join our $20 multi-entry MLB MoonShot Challenge with $3,000 guaranteed!
