As with every Tuesday, I’m back again for my weekly MLB SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week I will be bringing this article to SuperDraft to break down and analyze the slate of MLB games for the night, as well as a review of the article the following day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap adding an extra layer to the lineup building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier. With baseball being a sport with a ton of variance, it is difficult to find players with extremely safe floors, even the best players in the game will have games where they produce 0 fantasy points.
However, the absence of a salary cap also gives us the flexibility to roster any player since we don’t have to worry about those restrictions. This means we can still “stack,” or pair several players from the same team in order to achieve correlation in fantasy point scoring and upside. But we can also treat the players with the higher multiplier as a priority. Now, let’s dive right into the slate!
As always, be sure to monitor weather issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is in the starting lineup before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
Format
We have arrived in the postseason season, and that means we have a showdown slate on our hands. Keep in mind that with his format you will roster a “Champion” player that will receive a 50% multiplier than their price at the “Superflex” position. You can roster any position, so naturally, the more optimal route is going to be using pitchers in the “Champ” slot, so let’s take a quick look at some math to back that up.
Pitching matchups
Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi are on the hill for these teams, and Cole averages 22.9 FPPG while Eovaldi sits at 16.7. Cole has a 1.5x multiplier, which would put his average score at 34.4 with everything accounted for. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is the hitter with the highest average FPPG at 10.7, and he has a 2.05x multiplier, this would put him at 21.9. So, on average you can see pitchers are going to be more optimal, but there are definitely scenarios where a hitter scores 25-30 points, which could produce you upward of 60 points depending on the multiplier. My point here is that using a hitter in the CHP slot is definitely going to be optimal less likely than the pitcher, but there are times where it can pay off — and it will likely be more unique doing so, giving you a potential advantage on the field.
That all said, let’s get into the plays.
The plays
Gerrit Cole (1.5x CHP, 1x SFLX)
I basically said all there is to be said about Cole in the above section. He is going to be the optimal CHP option more often than anyone else, and you should almost certainly have him in an SFLX spot if you don’t have him as a Champ.
Nathan Eovaldi (1.75x CHP, 1.15x SFLX)
I would fade Eovaldi before fading Cole, but again, Eovaldi gets an inherent advantage being a pitcher in this format.
Anthony Rizzo (2.85x CHP, 1.9x SFLX)
Rizzo is probably my favorite hitter on the night. He has a very nice multiplier despite being one of the better hitters against RHP on this Yankees team. He has a .204 ISO and just a 12% K%.
Gleyber Torres (3.05x CHP, 2.05x SFLX)
Torres is the top “value” of the night. He has the second-highest multiplier among projected starters (just Christian Arroyo has a better one). Torres has been pretty bad against RHPs this year, but he is the projected lead-off hitter in this one so he should get plenty of opportunities to cash in on that great multiplier.
Other Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge
The Red Sox bats will definitely be the most contrarian plays of the night, and if you don’t have Cole in your CHP spot it makes a ton of sense to have at least 1-2 Red Sox hitters.
Top Red Sox
Rafael Devers (home run pick for me, and top contrarian play of the night), Kyle Schwarber
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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