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Projecting hitters over the course of the day can be a volatile undertaking. Starting lineups & batting orders aren’t typically announced until 90+ minutes before first pitch, and actual lineups can be very different from what is expected hours before game time. Batting order can have a major impact on projectability, so top plays (particularly hitters) which are highlighted in the afternoon can become weaker plays closer to lock if lineups, weather, or pitching matchups change over the course of the day. When in doubt, refer to the top projections table at the bottom of this article which will be updated periodically as projections change.
Pitchers
Julio Urias (2x) – Urias’ 25.2% whiff rate is the second highest on tonight’s slate, behind only Patrick Corbin (1.45x). His launch angle/exit velocity implied wOBA of 0.325 is second lowest on tonight’s slate. This matchup would be a tough draw if this game was played in Colorado, but instead the Rockies are traveling to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Great spot for the max-multiplier Urias.
Sean Manea (1.85x) – Manea does just about everything well, is exceptional in few things. His whiff rate & implied wOBA are above average for the slate, the matchup is pretty good, Detroit’s lineup has an above average whiff rate, below average implied wOBA. Aspects of Manea that stand out are his superb 5% walk rate over the last 2 years (best on the slate) and his strong win equity – Oakland has -180 win odds and Manea can work deep into games (average of 99 pitches through his first two starts this year).
Hitters
Sean Murphy (1.95x, expected to bat 6th) – These Oakland hitters have arguably the best spot on the slate. Detroit starter Tarik Skurbal has the second-highest launch angle/exit velocity implied wOBA allowed over the last two years (0.411), the Detroit Bullpen has allowed the highest implied wOBA this year (0.479), the wind is expected to be blowing out in Oakland tonight, and while the Oakland Coliseum is typically a pitchers’ park, there aren’t really any elite hitters’ stadiums hosting games on the main slate, which should mitigate some park factor concerns for OAK hitters. Murphy at 1.95x, expected to bat 6th projects favorably given his price and batting slot.
Tim Locastro (1.65x, expected to bat 1st) – Locastro leaves much to be desired with his pop. His implied wOBA is near the bottom of hitters on tonight’s slate. But he is batting leadoff at the best hitters’ park on tonight’s slate, he makes frequent contact and is going up against a pitcher who has been ceding pretty good contact over the past couple years (Corbin’s 0.389 implied wOBA is in the top half of pitchers on tonight’s slate), and has some of the best stolen base equity on tonight’s small slate.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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