The PGA Tour moves to the motor city for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Advanced Sports Analytics is here with all the picks and projections you need to win some cash. They first provide you with some key info on the Detriot Golf Club:
Course Overview
Expect another birdie fest this weekend at the Detroit Golf Club. We’ve only had two Rocket Mortgage Classics, last year Bryson took it down with a 23-under score, Nate Lashley won the inaugural RMC with a 25-under week. The course has similar z-score coefficients to last weekend, so we should try to follow a similar course fit approach: strong negative coefficients for Putting, Around the Green, and Off the Tee play suggest that there should be a good amount of volatility. That is, the relative importance of just about every shot type is weaker at Detroit Golf Club than it is on the average PGA Tour course.
The one-shot type that plays up at Detroit Golf Club (more than a full standard deviation more important than the average tour course) is strokes gained on approach shots. It is worth noting that unlike TPC River Highlands, the Detroit Golf Club is a recent addition to the tour, there have only been two tournaments played there as to where TPC River Highlands has been a tour mainstay.
Favorite To Trust
Will Zalatoris (1.25x)
Zalatoris’ multiplier doesn’t scream “favorite”, but at 23-1 odds on some sites, he’s a top-5 golfer to win. Zalatoris has never played at the Detroit Golf Club, so there is no course history to go off of. He is a phenomenal fit – he’s about average (give or take) at putting, around the green play, and off the tee play (all of which have down-weighted importance), but he has been stellar in his approach play (which is of elevated importance at the Detroit Golf Club). Over the past 6 months, Zalatoris has gained +0.82 strokes per round on approach shots, which is the highest value over that span in the field this weekend.
Challenger Who Could Win
Cameron Tringale (1.45x)
Tringale has really great win odds relative to his multiplier. At 41-1 to win, he’s got the 14th best win odds, the next best odds among golfers at 1.45x or higher is Sepp Straka at 67-1. Tringale has played both Rocket Mortgage Classics, two made cuts, T30 (-12) last year, T5 (-17) in 2019. He’s a strong course fit as well, over the past 6 months his approach play has stood out as he’s gained +0.42 strokes per round on approach shots.
Sleeper To Take A Flyer On
Hank Lebioda (1.6x)
Let’s run it back with Lebioda this weekend who was great at the Travelers last weekend – T5, 10 strokes under par. Lebioda has been great lately, T5 at the Travelers, T31 at the Palmetto Championship, T17 at the Byron Nelson, T51 at the Wells Fargo, T13 at Valspar. Lebioda is also a perfect fit for Detroit, as he’s been just below field average in strokes gained putting, around the green, and off the tee over the past 6 months, but has been exceptional in his approach play, gaining +0.72 strokes per round, 3rd best in this weekend’s field over that time span.
Projections
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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