It’s Friday and we’ve got a great 9 game NBA slate tonight on SuperDraft! The guys at Advanced Sports Analytics have blessed us with a video breakdown along with top picks by position and tonight’s projections. Let’s get into it.
Devin Booker (1.3x) – Booker is a near-elite usage player. Luka is in a tier of his own, with a 2021 usage rate north of 35%, Brad Beal & Embiid make up the bottom tier of this elite usage group, and then Booker & a host of others are in this tier outside of the top 3. Over the past month Booker’s usage has been up over 34% (about +2%), you aren’t going to get many players with that type of role for 1.3x.
De’Aaron Fox (1.3x) – However, you can get a guy with a slightly lower usage rate, but a little more expected playing time, slightly better fantasy efficiency (mostly through elevated defensive & assist metrics). Fox has been locked into a mid-30’s minutes role, as where Booker tends to fluctuate between the low- & mid-30’s.
Gordon Hayward (1.5x) – Different night, same story with Hayward. His multiplier has come up a bit since last night, but all of the underlying metrics remain. Since Ball went down with injury, Hayward has averaged nearly 33 minutes per game, a 24% usage rate, a 112 offensive rating, and 14 field goal attempts per game, compared to 29/19%/103/11.5 in the month leading up to Ball’s injury (and in which Ball’s metrics looked more like Hayward’s over the last two weeks).
Richaun Holmes (1.4x) – Holmes’ efficiency is off the charts on account of his well-rounded play. He rebounds & blocks shots at a well-above-average rate, his offensive rating of 126 is exceptional. With Hassan Whiteside & Marvin Bagley continuing to miss time Holmes has been locked into a 30+ minute role, and has seen his shot attempts climb towards 10 attempts per game opposed to his prior frequency which typically saw him under 10 shots a game.
Jonas Valanciunas (1.35x) – Memphis/Minnesota figures to be the most uptempo game on the slate, with both teams playing games at more than 100 possessions per 48 minutes over the past month (only game with such properties on the slate). Valanciunas is like Holmes in that he does a couple of things well (rebounding in particular) which gives him a nice floor. And his scoring efficiency when the opportunity is there gives him a nice ceiling too.
Rudy Gobert (1.25x) – Gobert can be difficult to project for cash purposes as his mean projection can be inflated by his shot-blocking metrics. The game has a nice 224.5 total, but there is significant blowout risk as Utah currently sits at 11.5-point favorites.
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