The NBA season is back Tuesday, and that means it’s the start of my weekly NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week I will be bringing this article to SuperDraft to break down and analyze the slate of NBA games for the night, as well as a review of the article the following day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap adding an extra layer to the lineup-building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project because of a lower variance compared to other DFS sports. With that being the case, finding the best value or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlate lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
For Tuesday’s two-game slate, it is likely best to worry less about the negative correlation part I just referenced due to the lack of options in general, but still something to keep in mind.
The Plays
James Harden, Brooklyn Nets (1.05x score multiplier)
Despite just a 1.05x multiplier, Harden has the best projection for me of anyone on the slate. The usage and efficiency should remain elite for Harden, especially with Kyrie Irving absent from the team.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (1x)
Giannis doesn’t get any additional multiplier, but he still projects as the second-best play on the board for me. The Nets played fast while struggling defensively last year, and with the Vegas total tight in this game, this one has vintage ceiling Giannis written all over it. If you don’t have Giannis in your lineup, I would highly recommend considering Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday at 1.25x.
Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors (1.45x)
Stephen Curry will likely be very popular, and while he is also a fantastic play, Poole has some upside. He has a great chance at benefiting if Curry were to struggle.
Overall, SuperDraft NBA is tricky because you can play anybody you want and with the top 6-7 guys in terms of projections all having a 1.25x multiplier or lower, it is really easy to just plug most of them in. However, the higher multiplier guys like Poole should provide some contrarian aspects to your lineups.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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