The injuries have dominated the narrative of this series with Trae Young missing Game 4 and Giannis having to leave Game 4 with a knee injury. When building your lineup consider that Trae Young is questionable for this game. Advanced Sports Analytics is here to help you navigate this crucial Game 5 single-game slate!
Low-Multiplier Building Block
Jrue Holiday (1.35x // 2.05x)
We like Holiday as the main man to step for Giannis. There was a stretch of games during the regular season when Giannis missed significant time (April 3 – 14) so that is a good place to start when analyzing how the Bucks’ minutes, field goal attempts, and usage will be distributed. No surprise that the top two players in terms of those stats are Holiday and Khris Middleton. You can’t go wrong if you roster both of them but only one of them can be in the Champion spot. So which one do we choose as our Champion? This is a tough call since they both should play north of 35 minutes, have a usage % of at least 30%, and attempt 20+ field goals.
If we get more granular when investigating the first half of April while Giannis was out, Holiday had a higher average of SuperDraft points per minute (1.18 for Holiday and 0.95 for Middleton). Holiday also had a higher percentage of team rebounds and assists than Middleton (7.33% to 6% for rebounds and 27.73% to 19.43% for assists). Finally, Holiday is more accurate from the field and it’s not uncommon for Middleton to have awful shooting nights.
In fact, Holiday shot 50.3% from the field during the regular season while Middleton shot 47.6%. During the postseason Middleton had two games in which he shot 6 for 23. A night like that will sink your lineup so go with Holiday as your Champion/Low-Multiplier Building Block who has proven he can be a more superior player than Middleton when Giannis has missed time.
High-Multiplier Flyer
Bobby Portis (1.8x // 2.7x)
Another player who seems to benefit greatly with Giannis off the court is Portis. During the first half of April when Giannis missed time, Portis averaged 27.78 minutes per game, attempted at least 10 field goals per game, had a usage rate of 22%, accounted for 20.37% of the Bucks rebounds, and averaged 1.27 SuperDraft points per minute (more than any other Bucks player).
Of course, the issue with Portis is minutes allotment and he will most likely come off the bench with Bryn Forbes listed as a probable starter in place of Giannis. Still, Portis has a high multiplier to make up for any deficit in minutes and is incredibly efficient when he is on the floor. The Bucks didn’t use Portis all that much in the previous series against Brooklyn. He averaged just 12 SuperDraft points per game in that series and didn’t even play in Games 5, 6, and 7. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Portis has played every game and is averaging 20.75 points per game. His usage should only increase with Giannis missing tonight’s game and can be a worthwhile gamble as your Champion.
Fade Consideration
Clint Capela (1.3x // 1.95x)
Capela has been an enigma for most of this series. Game 1 was an excellent one for him with 37 minutes played, 12 points, and 19 rebounds all amounting to 46.25 SuperDraft points. For Games 2, 3, and 4, Capela has not even cracked the 30-minute barrier and has scored less than 30 SuperDraft points for each of those games. Capela is supposed to be one of the most reliable double-double players in the league but he is struggling to even hit double digits in either points or rebounds.
Perhaps fatigue is setting in. Capela is notorious for being one of the least durable big men in the league missing significant time since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Eastern Conference Finals will only get more intense with the series tied at 2 games apiece and key players missing on each side. Look elsewhere when figuring out which Hawks player to roster.
Projections
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
Click here to join our $20 multi-entry NBA Jump Shot Contest with $8,000 in guaranteed prizes!
