It is only a seven-game MLB slate tonight on SuperDraft. Options will be more limited so our strategy partners at Advanced Sports Analytics have some recommended tips for you to consider when preparing for this evening’s MLB slate.
Corbin Burnes (1.85x) – SP – MIL vs. PIT –
There’s a chance of rain tonight in Pittsburgh, but it’s worth highlighting Corbin Burnes tonight with a 1.85x multiplier. If Degrom wasn’t also on the slate tonight, Burnes 34.5% whiff rate would be the best by a wide margin, the slate average whiff rate is 23.9%. Burnes has favorable numbers across the board, his walk rate and barrel rate are both well below the slate average.
As if Burnes’ numbers aren’t favorable enough, he gets to face one of the worst teams in the league. The Pirates line-up whiff rate of 33% is well above the slate average of 24%, and with Burnes averaging over 8 strikeout’s an appearance in June, this match-up sets up for double-digit K’s. The Brewers tonight also have the highest win equity and with Burnes pitching on a 1.85x multiplier there is significant value if the Brewers can get the job done.
Framber Valdez (2x) – P – HOU vs. CLE –
Valdez was highlighted in a previous article, but we didn’t get to see his performance, as the Astros were rained out. Tonight the projections love him again, as his 2x multiplier behind one of the strongest offenses in the MLB offers great win equity. Valdez is coming off his first loss of the season despite pitching a quality start, giving up 3 earned in 6 innings. Valdez’s barrel rate this season is 3.7%, well below the slate average of 7%.
Despite only getting 6 appearances this season, he had an incredible June, going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA. Valdez faces an Indians team tonight that’s roughly the middle of the pack in most offensive metrics. The real value for Valdez will be the Astros’ ability to put up runs against Indians starting pitcher J.C. Mejia and provide Valdez with plenty of run support to get the win.
St. Louis Cardinals Stacks (Dylan Carlson 1.6x, Tyler O’Neill 1.4x, Paul Goldschmidt 1.2x) vs. Colorado Rockies –
The Cardinals stack has a favorable matchup tonight against Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies. Senzatela has some of the worst numbers on the slate tonight, his whiff rate of 17.9% is well below the 23.9% average tonight. Senzatela is coming off five appearances in June, with a 1-2 record, and a 4.40 ERA. The Cardinals line-up whiff rate is 18.2% which is below the slate average of 24%.
The top of the Cardinal’s order has had success this season. Carlson is batting .267 with a .411 slugging percentage, and leading the team with a .351 OBP. O’Neill has had a great year behind his 18.6% barrel rate, well above the slate average of 8.6%. O’Neill is batting .272 with 15 home runs and a .544 slugging percentage. Goldschmidt is the final piece of this stack, he started the season cold but has come on as of late with a .281 average and a .349 OBP in June. Look for the Cardinals to get it going early tonight against Senzatela.
Pittsburgh Pirates Stacks (Colin Moran 1.45x, Jacob Stallings 1.75x, Gregory Polanco 1.4x) vs. Milwaukee Brewers-
As we do often, it’s never a bad idea to fade our favorite pitching match-up of the night. With how much the projections love Corbin Burnes tonight, it’s no surprise how low they are on the Pirates’ offense. The Pirates are already one of the worst teams in the league, and going up against an elite pitcher does not bode well for them. The Pirates line-up whiff rate of 33% is the second-worst on the slate. The Pirates set up to strike out a lot tonight, and with one of the lowest total runs projected tonight, let’s steer clear of the Pirates at all costs tonight.
Editors note: Projecting hitters over the course of the day can be a volatile undertaking. Starting lineups & batting orders aren’t typically announced until 90+ minutes before first pitch, and actual lineups can be very different from what is expected hours before game time. Batting order can have a major impact on projectability, so top plays (particularly hitters) which are highlighted in the afternoon can become weaker plays closer to lock if lineups, weather, or pitching matchups change over the course of the day. When in doubt, refer to the top projections table at the bottom of this article which will be updated periodically as projections change.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.