Tonight features an 11 game MLB main slate. We’ll sort through which pitchers stand out tonight, and which pitchers to take advantage of with offensive stacks. With a few Ace’s on the mound, we’ll also discuss which offensive stack to avoid.
Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (1.55x) – SP – PHI vs. WSN –
Wheeler is in top form right now, he’s coming off of a 7 inning, 1 earned run, 8 strikeout performance in a win last week. His 2.37 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are good for 8th and 12th in the MLB respectively. His 160 strikeouts are 2nd in the MLB only six behind Gerrit Cole, and he can move into first place tonight.
Despite Wheeler’s mid-tier whiff rate, he dominates the game from a command perspective, he has a 5.5% walk rate, and only a 3.5% barrel rate compared to slate averages of 8.3% and 7.7% respectively. Wheeler, unlike most pitchers these days, averages 100 pitches a start, the slate average is 86. The Phillies are massive favorites tonight, and if Wheeler can get offensive support look for him to put up a big number.
Andrew Heaney (1.75x) – SP – LAA vs. COL –
Heaney and the Angels are massive favorites tonight at home against the Rockies. Heaney has had 2 starts this season where he gave up over 7 earned runs, which has massively affected his ERA. Despite these starts, he’s shown an ability to be dominant when he has his good stuff. He’s coming off an impressive win, going 7 innings, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, and 7 strikeouts.
Heaney has solid advanced metrics, a 26.8 whiff rate compared to the slate average of 22.8%, and below-average walk rates, demonstrating solid command. Heaney’s had double-digit strikeouts 3 times this season and can make people swing and miss. If Heaney can show up with reasonable stuff tonight at home, look for him and the Angels to get the job done and get the win.
Hitters
Baltimore Orioles Stacks (Cedric Mullins 1.7x, Austin Hayes 1.85x, Ryan Mountcastle 1.7x) vs Miami Marlins –
In one of the higher projected run total games of the night, the Orioles take on Jordan Holloway and the Marlins at home. Holloway is only averaging 69 pitches an appearance and has a walk rate of 15.5%, nearly double the slate average of 8.3%. He’s appeared most often as a starter, so the Orioles will get to face a mid-tier bullpen for the later innings.
With this game projected to be close and a high total, Vegas is expecting runs out of the Orioles. The top of the Orioles line-up has been a deceivingly decent offense this year. Mullins is hitting .319 with a .545 SLG. Hayes and Mountcastle have a .443 and .441 SLG percentage respectively. On a packed slate tonight, this Orioles stack is a nice differentiator and offers a ton of value.
Fades
San Francisco Giants Stacks (Alex Dickerson 1.75x, Wilmer Flores 1.55x, Donovan Solano 1.9x) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers-
The Giants are facing Dodgers’ ace Walker Buehler tonight. Despite a strong offensive season from the Giants, there is no reason to get fancy here, with Buehler’s 2.31 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 131 strikeouts on the season. In Buehler’s outing against the Giants last week he went 7.1 innings, allowing 5 hits, 1 earned run, and striking out 9. With that said, avoid the Giants tonight and look for offensive production elsewhere.
In this Wednesday night slate, look for Zach Wheeler to have a dominant performance, as he’s done all year, and get the job done at home against the Nationals. Expect Andrew Heaney to have a solid start, picking up where he left off last week. Take the Baltimore Orioles Stack tonight, as they’re projected to put up some runs. Finally, avoid the red-hot Giants as they face Walker Buehler tonight.
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