Tonight features a full 15 game MLB main slate. With every team in the league playing, we’ll sort through the countless options and decide which pitchers offer the most value, and which offenses have blowout ability tonight.
Pitchers
Kenta Maeda (1.95x) – SP – MIN at. DET –
Kenta Maeda has been in top form the month of July, despite his 1-1 record. In his four July appearances, he has 23 innings, 14 hits, 6 earned runs, and 31 strikeouts. His July ERA of 2.35 indicates his bounce back after some injury issues in June. Maeda has strong advanced metrics, his 30.1% whiff rate is well above the slate average of 22.6%. His barrel rate allowed is 6.4%, below the slate average of 8.1%.
Maeda has been reverting to his 2020 form, and it’s a great opportunity to take advantage of it, with the Twins as massive favorites at home against the Tigers tonight. Look for Maeda to rack up the strikeouts and keep a cooling-down Tigers team in check.
Lance McCullers Jr. (1.75x) – SP – HOU vs. SEA –
After the Astros bullpen melted down last night, look for the team to bounce back and get the win tonight behind the dominant Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers has been a monster on the road this year with a 5-0 record and a 2.66 ERA. He has a whiff rate of 28.42% which is above the slate average of 22.6%, and he pitches late into games with an average of 97 pitches per game significantly above the 83 pitches a game average.
Expect McCullers to pitch deep into the game, and averaging over eight strikeouts in his last four starts, look for him to dominate a Mariners team that strikes out at a high clip.
Hitters
Toronto Blue Jays Stacks (Bo Bichette 1.6x, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.4x, Teoscar Hernandez 1.25x) at Boston Red Soxs –
The Blue Jays get a favorable match-up against Garrett Richards. Richards has struggled at home this season, with a 2-3 record and a 6.55 ERA. Fenway is a favorable hitter ballpark, and Vegas projects this to be the highest-scoring game of the night with an 11 run game total. With the Blue Jays favored as well, the top of this order has the chance to put up big numbers tonight.
Take advantage of this Blue Jays best offense in the league on a massively packed slate tonight. The Blue Jays lead the MLB in SLG and OPS and look for them to continue that trend tonight.
Fades
Tampa Bay Rays Stacks (Nelson Cruz 1.1x, Brandon Lowe 1.4x, Austin Meadows 1.3x) vs. New York Yankees –
In the lowest projected game total on the slate, the Tampa Bay Rays face Jordan Montgomery and the struggling Yankees. Despite the 3-5 record, Montgomery has solid numbers, his 3.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are good for 42nd and 33rd in the MLB respectively. Montgomery is coming off of a 5.2 inning, 3 hits, no earned run outing last week against the Red Sox’s. With a pitcher in Montgomery’s form and the lowest projected total of the night, it’s better to look elsewhere for offensive production.
Projections
In this massive Tuesday night slate, look for pitchers Kenta Maeda and Lance McCullers Jr. to shine among the 28 other starters. With so many offenses to choose from, look for one of the best offenses in the league, the Toronto Blue Jays to put up a huge number on the road in Fenway. Finally, stay away from the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the lowest total of the night.
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