Tonight is a larger than normal 11 game Monday night main slate. With an excess of players to chose from, we’ll sort through the best pitching options, and highlight the offensive line-ups to both targets and fade.
Pitchers
Zack Greinke (1.6x) – SP – HOU vs CLE –
Grienke has proved an ability to be dominant late into his career. His success has been bolstered by a dominant Astros line-up. The Astros are facing the Cleveland Indians and are heavy favorites with J.C. Mejia and his 7.42 ERA pitching.
Greinke’s 3.42 ERA is a result of his dominant command. His 4.2% walk rate is less than half of the slate average of 9.2%. Greinke has been incredibly consistent this season, his ERA in all 4 months of the season has been within 3 to 4. Look for Greinke and the Astros to get the win tonight against the Indians, and ride Greinke’s high floor to success in your line-ups.
Kyle Gibson (1.95x) – SP – TEX at DET –
Kyle Gibson is quietly having an incredible season. He’s tied for the 6th best odds to win the AL CY Young per Vegas. After getting shelled in his opening day start, he has since brought his ERA down to 2.29, which is good for 6th in the MLB. Despite his success, the 35-58 Rangers have failed to provide enough run support, and bullpen support, resulting in a 6-1 win-loss record for Gibson.
The Rangers have a difficult match-up tonight with Casey Mize and the Tigers, the game is currently projected as 50-50 by Vegas. With a 1.95x multiplier, Gibson offers tremendous value, and if the Rangers can provide enough run support, Gibson can put up a big number in your line-ups tonight.
Hitters
Cincinnati Reds Stacks (Jonathan India 1.85x, Jesse Winker 1.4x, Joey Votto 1.5x, Tyler Naquin 1.55x) vs New York Mets –
The New York Mets have Jerad Eickhoff on the mound amidst their neverending injury struggles. Eickhoff has a 13% whiff rate, well below the slate average of 22.3%. He’s only made three appearances this season and has given up 17 hits and 7 earned runs in 12 innings.
The Red’s meanwhile have had a surprisingly strong season so far, they’re a few games above .500 and still have a chance at a playoff run. This stack features 4 of their top 5 hitters, with Castellanos left off of the list, although don’t be afraid to consider him in your stacks. The Reds are top 10 in the MLB in batting average and OBP and have the chance to take advantage of an injured Met’s team tonight.
Fades
Cleveland Indians Stacks (Franmil Reyes 1.25x, Oscar Mercado 1.4x, Bobby Bradley 1.8x) at Oakland Athletics –
We’re going to fade the same team and players as Friday night, for the same reason again tonight. The Indians are facing strong pitching in Zack Greinke, and after the 3 guys mentioned above combined for 1 for 11 in the Friday night outing, let’s steer clear of them again. The entire Indians order projects incredibly poorly, with 4 of the bottom 5 projected hitters tonight at the bottom of the Indians lineup. Steer clear of the entire Indians line-up tonight, as there is better value to be had elsewhere.
Projections
In this large Monday night slate, look to Greinke and his huge win equity to provide a high floor in your line-ups tonight. Don’t pass up on a CY Young sleeper Kyle Gibson and his 1.95x multiplier against the Tigers. Finally, look for the Reds to take advantage of a beat-up Met’s team in the series opener tonight.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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