In the monster 14-game slate tonight, the projections are all over the high multiplier pitchers, with 6 of the top 7 projected pitchers at 2x. Let’s sort through the statistics and figure out which of these guys should get the nod on tonight’s slate. With four pitchers tonight supporting over six ERA’s, we’ll walk through which offensive stacks to jump on.
Pitchers
Kenta Maeda (2x) – SP – MIN vs DET –
Kenta Maeda is on the mound tonight pitching for one of the largest favorites tonight, the Minnesota Twins. Starting Maeda tonight plays on not only his strength but the massive likelihood of a 2x win with the Twins facing Detroit starting pitcher Matt Manning’s 7.94 ERA. The Tiger’s line-up has struggled as well, their whiff rate is 5% above league average, and their contact rate is over 4% below league average.
Maeda has had solid numbers this season, his whiff rate of 30.2% the past two seasons compared to the slate average of 22.7% sets him up well to take advantage of this Tiger’s team. Maeda also has strong command, with a walk rate this season of 5.3%, well below the 8.4% slate average.
Maeda’s 5.03 ERA is the result of some rough outings against top offenses, most recently a thrashing from the White Sox. He’s shown an ability to be dominant, however, with his last start against the Royals throwing 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, and 10 strikeouts. Combine Maeda’s win equity tonight with strong recent performances, you should not be afraid to get a lot of exposure to him in your line-ups.
Alex Cobb (2x) – SP – LAA at SEA –
Cobb gets a tougher matchup tonight against a middle-of-the-pack Mariners team. The Mariner’s offense has struggled, they are dead last in the MLB in batting average, and OBP. On the other hand, Cobb has shown flashes of dominance this season, despite having some blow-up outings. He’s shown an ability to dominate poor offensive teams, coming off a 7.2 inning outing, where he gave up one earned run and struck out six in a win against the Orioles.
Cobb has a solid whiff rate of 25.4%, compared to the slate average of 23%, and a barrel rate of 4.6% this season, which is nearly half of the slate average of 8.7%. Cobb has significant upside tonight, with strong win equity against a weak offensive team. Look for Cobb to be a high multiplier guy who can get the job done.
Hitters
Minnesota Twins Stacks (Alex Kirilloff 1.7x, Luis Arraez 1.55x, Trevor Larnach 1.7x) vs. Detroit Tigers –
Despite a lack of success in the Win-Loss column this season, the Twins have not been struggling on the offensive side. They’re top 10 in the MLB in AVG, SLG, and OPS. The Twins get a match-up tonight as we alluded to earlier with Matt Manning who’s been shelled since he’s entered the big leagues. He’s got a 7.94 ERA through his first 4 starts, and with only a small sample size his whiff rate so far of 9.6% is the worst I’ve seen, well below half the slate average of 22.7%.
With such a favorable match-up tonight, the Twins hitters are projecting great value. Kirilloff and Larnach both have mid .260 batting averages, 7 home runs, and .440’s slugging percentages. Given their match-up tonight, and Vegas projecting a blow-out, they’ll have a high probability at 5+ at-bats.
Arraez has had a strong year, despite not hitting for power, he’s batting .292 and projects to get a lot of at-bats tonight from the lead-off spot. Other guys worth considering in the Twins stack are their 2 and 3 hitters; Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz. Both guys have double-digit home runs and high barrel rates, both above 16%. Look for the Twins to get a blow-out going early tonight and keep the gas on all night.
Fades
Colorado Rockies Stacks (Ryan McMahon 1.2x, Charlie Blackmon 1.15x, C.J. Cron 1.2x) vs. San Diego Padres –
The Rockies have struggled this season, and they get a match-up tonight against a top 5-10 pitching staff in the San Diego Padres. Craig Stammen is projected to go tonight after a late Blake Snell scratch, but this is a tricky spot for the Rockies as Stammen has been pretty good this sporting a 2.84 ERA.
Projections
With all the 2x multiplier pitchers tonight, we’re targeting Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb. We’ll focus on the Minnesota Twins offense tonight, with the full pitcher and offense stack, as Matt Manning and the Tigers haven’t shown an ability to get it done all season. Finally, with a slate this large be sure to target the weakest pitchers and we’re choosing to avoid the Rockies stack despite a last-minute scratch.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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