NFL Championship Sunday is here! While the divisional round did not live to the hype, it created two fantastic matchups to make up the NFL’s final four. No matter what the results are, we are going to have a great matchup for the Big Game. You know what will make this weekend even better? Winning some cash in our NFL Red Zone contest! I got the lineup that I am willing to say in my best Charles Barkley voice, GUARANTEES you to win cash this week.
Quarterback
Josh Allen 1.1X
With Mahomes in concussion protocol and having a multiplier of 1X, it feels like a no-brainer to go with Josh Allen on Sunday. Allen has a 1.1X multiplier and has had one of the best fantasy seasons in the league. He threw for 4,544 yards, 37 TD, 10 Int and averaged 26.4 FPPG this season. This average goes up to 29 FPPG when you include his multiplier.
On top of his consistent great play, the way the Bills have abandoned the running game provides security around Allen’s fantasy value. The Bills even though they never trailed last week, ran the ball 16 times while Allen had 37 pass attempts. I would be surprised if this script flips against a Chiefs team that they will need to keep up with.
Running Back 1
Leonard Fournette 1.35X
Unlike Paul George, Leonard Fournette has actually lived up to his nickname “playoff Lenny”. Against Washington, he put up 93 yards rushing, 1 touchdown, with 4 catches and 39 yards which comes out to 21.2 FP. Then against a really good Saints defense, he ran for 63 yards, and then caught 5 passes for 44 yards and 1 TD for 19.2 FP. With Fournette playing like, this I would be shocked if Ronald Jones all of sudden gets most of the reps this week.
On top of this, the Packers are a team that has struggled this season to stop the run. They have given up the 5th most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and back in Week 6, they gave up the 158 yards rushing to the Bucs. With it expected to be a cold-weather, close game, the Bucs should lean on Fournette and the running game. However, when Tom Brady throws the ball, Fournette has proven to be a reliable receiving option out of the backfield.
Running Back 2
Darrel Williams 1.85X
If Clyde-Edwards Helaire does not play in this game, it is hard not to love Williams at 1.85X. In the last two games the Chiefs played all of their starters, Williams played in 70% and 79% of the snaps respectively. He has surpassed Le’veon Bell on the depth chart and with the numbers he has put up the last two games he deserves it.
Against the Falcons in Week 16 he rushed for 46 yards and caught 4 passes for 27 yards which gave him 9.3 FP. Last week against Cleveland, Williams ran for 78 yards and caught 4 passes for 16 yards which amounted to 11.4 FP. With the 1.85X multiplier, he averaged 19.15 FPPG without even scoring a touchdown. If he can sneak into the endzone this week, he will be a home run pick at 1.85X.
Wide Receiver 1
Davante Adams 1X
Adams has been the best receiver in the NFL this season. It is impossible to not pick him because even if he has a bad matchup, like I thought he did last week against the Rams on Fantasy Gainz, he will still go off. Against Jalen Ramsay, he caught 9 passes for 66 yards and 1 touchdown which amounts to a solid 17.1 FP. With that touchdown, it was his 19th of the season and it was only his 15th game played. He only has three games all season in which he has not scored a touchdown.
Given the Bucs’ great run defense, I expect the Packers to throw the ball a lot and Davante Adams is going to have another game where he is targeted around 10 times and he will put up another touchdown. It does not matter that he is at 1X. You have got to put Adams in your lineup.
Wide Receiver 2
Stefon Diggs 1.15X
All of the things I just said about Adams, you can say about Stefon Diggs. Diggs, along with Adams, was an All-Pro this season and led the league in catches with 127 and receiving yards with 1,535 yards including 8 touchdowns. He averaged 17.4 FPPG this season and 20.1 when you factor in his multiplier.
He has been even better in the first two playoff games for the Bills. He caught 6 passes for 128 yards and 1 touchdown with 21.8 FP vs the Colts. He then hauled in 8 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown with 20.6 FP vs the Ravens. With how much the Bills should throw in this game, I do not expect to see anything less from Diggs this week.
Wide Receiver 3
John Brown 1.5X
On this week’s edition of Fantasy Gainz which you can watch above, I talked about why I did NOT like Tyreek Hill this week. The guy I like in my third wide receiver spot is John Brown. Brown when he has been healthy has been a really solid option. In the 9 games he has played in this season, he’s caught 41 passes for 520 yards and three touchdowns. When you average that over a 16 game sample size, he would have caught 73 passes for 924 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
These are certainly not numbers you would expect for a wide receiver with a 1.5X multiplier. He is coming off a solid game vs the Ravens where he caught 8 passes for 62 yards and 10.2 FP. I expect the Bills to throw it all over the yard and Brown along with Diggs will get his fair share of targets.
Tight End
Travis Kelce 1X
Yes, I understand this is a chalky pick but you gotta do what you gotta do to win. Kelce is far superior to any other tight end in this draft group. He averaged 18 FPPG on the season. The only other tight end that comes close to this is Robert Tonyan. Tonyan put up 14 FPPG but that is WITH his multiplier of 1.4X.
Kelce should continue to produce at a high level this week as the Bills have given up 6th most fantasy points allowed to tight ends and he already had a big game against them. He caught five passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns for 19 FP. Don’t overthink this one and just take Travis Kelce at your tight end spot.
Flex
Chris Godwin 1.35X
There are question marks about Godwin will play in this game but things appear to be leaning towards him playing. While Mike Evans has the better numbers, you just get the feeling that Chris Godwin is a more reliable target for Tom Brady. Evans has shown he can get flustered when things do not go his way. Given the fact he will most likely be guarded by Jaire Alexander and with it being cold weather, I do not feel comfortable taking Evans here.
Godwin has been the more consistent player when healthy and Tom Brady will always heavily depend on the guys he trusts the most in big games. I believe Godwin is the player Brady has the most trust in. While this will be a run-heavy attack for the Bucs, they will still have to pass the ball effectively to win this game. When they decide to throw I believe Brady will be looking Godwin’s way more than anyone else on the field.
Agree or disagree with these picks? Let me know in the comments!
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way
Even your “value plays” are chalk
GIVE ME A 2X!!!!
Bro! I agree with this. I was just flipping thru my fantasy apps during my down time at work. No BS, without even seeing this, this is almost the same lineup as I chose for other app’s draft. I made a couple and was on the fence about the QB situation. *Mahomes: great, but considering the “uh oh” he had last week… is there a chance that he might not be the usual rock totin’, gun sling in’, high impact player like usual?! I dunno. *Josh Allen: It’s not that the Bills abandoned the run game… they never really had one this year to begin with! Even if they lose, I’m sure Allen is due for a great game for fantasy. He may have, what I like to call, “THE ROMO EFFECT”. He can throw 2 picks, get sacked 4 times, lose the game… AND STILL put up some good fantasy points. He actually won me my yearly fantasy league. (Also “The Romo Effect” is A.K.A. “The Winston Effect” depending on personal preference. Feel free to use the term if you’d like. It makes you feel, and look a little more mathematically & scientifically inclined per fantasy football. Actually, It’s how I got my first wife.) ANYWAYS, Rodgers: has had great games this year, but he also has a great RB that he could lean on and keep the ball out of the air. Tom Brady: has had a few recent games where he has “Balled Out”. If his O-Line doesn’t protect him, we all know what that can do to Brady. Brady is a lot of ppls GOAT, but I personally feel Rodgers would of and could of done the same, if he was given the same opportunity to have Bill Belichik as his coach and mentor. Regardless of that topic, I feel Josh Allen, with a hot hand a.t.m. Also, the great year he has had, he is the pick I’m going with for QB as well Mi Amigo. Good luck!
I like those picks . But I have a really good feeling Brady is gonna go off
I agree! Had everyone except had Hill instead of Godwin 😀👍
Anyone who looks like him has to be MONEY!