We got a great match-up tonight at 7:30pm ET on TNT with the Mavs squaring off against the Nets! Both teams are jockeying for playoff position as the regular season winds down. With Kristaps Porzingis OUT tonight, which Dallas Mav will step up and provide great fantasy value? We go that answer and a lot more on this game!
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Low-Multiplier Lock
Luka Doncic (1.1x // 1.65x) – With Porzingis out, Luka will figure to be a very popular play. The underlying logic makes sense to us: star player Porizingis out, star player Luka figures to be even more of a star. But in the time that Porzingis has missed this year, it hasn’t really helped out Luka. He’s played fewer minutes and been less efficient per-minute. We think it is just a good price on Luka, he’s been at 1x for much of the season, so when he’s boosted up to 1.1x we take notice. For cash purposes Luka is a difficult fade, however for tournament purposes, given how popular Luka is likely to be, a case could be made for taking other Dallas pieces like Tim Hardaway, Dwight Powell, or Dorian Finney-Smith
Kevin Durant (1.05x // 1.6x) – Durant has been awesome lately, and makes him a more intriguing prospect than teammate Kyrie Irving (same multiplier). Durant is simply on fire, his true shooting percentage over the last 5 games is 73% (!!!) compared to Irving’s 53%. He and Irving have been assisting & turning the ball over at roughly the same rate, but Durant does a little more for you as a rebounder & shot blocker. Riding Durant will likely be the popular move, and makes sense for cash, but a case could be made for Kyrie in tournaments as he & Durant figure to have some negative correlation.
High-Multiplier Consideration
Tim Hardaway Jr. (2.2x // 3.3x), Dwight Powell (2.5x // 3.75x) – So far this year, THJ & Powell have been the guys with the biggest returns on Porzingis’ injuries. In the 17 games that Porzingis has missed this year, Hardaway & Powell have been up in minutes (+1.5 and +7, respectively), up in usage (+2.2% and +4.8%, respectively), and up in raw fantasy points (+6.9 and + 6.4, respectively).
While it will be very popular to jam in Doncic at 1.1x, there are very feasible paths to both THJ & Powell outscoring Doncic (although this wouldn’t automatically exclude Doncic from competitive lineups).
Player to Fade
Jalen Brunson (2.2x // 3.3x) – Given Brunson’s projectable workload it just feels like you’re unlikely to get burned by not having Brunson in your lineup. Over the last 7 games he has only played more than 20 minutes thrice, and all of those games had one of Dallas’ guards Richardson, Doncic, and Hardaway out. All are expected to play tonight, it would take a significant shift in Rick Carlisle’s offense for Brunson to get enough run to be a likely smash candidate.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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