Guard
Russell Westbrook (1x) – Right now there is simply not a multiplier in the 1-2x range that is appropriate for Russ. Since the start of April, Westbrook has played 22 games, and has failed to triple-double in only 3 of them (two of which he came a single assist short). The matchup isn’t superb (Atlanta plays slow & pretty good defense), but the absence of Brad Beal more than makes up for the tough matchup. In the 7 games that Beal has missed this year Westbrook’s deltas have been +1.8 minutes, +6.2% (!!!) usage rate, +0.17 fantasy points per minute, +8.9 fantasy points. Awesome spot for Russ, he’s been unfadeable lately.
Forward
Domantas Sabonis (1.15x) – In this injury stretch that the Pacers have found themselves (Brogdon out for past four games, perhaps more impactful injuries to JaKarr Sampson & Myles Turner over the same stretch), Sabonis has played 40+ minutes in 3 of 4 games, for an average of 41.25 (no overtimes). Simply put, Sabonis is getting a ton of run, and while his usage isn’t astronomical (mid 20s), he’s a productive rebounder and does enough on the defensive end to generate good per-minute efficiency, 1.35 over the season, that number has been up a good bit in this recent stretch.
The matchup for Sabonis is good, while Cleveland plays slow, Indiana plays so fast we’re not concerned about lack of opportunities. And the Cleveland defense is terrible, yielding the second-highest offensive rating to opponents over the past month on the slate.
Center
Jusuf Nurkic (1.35x), Clint Capela (1.25x) – Sometimes it is fine to simply jam players from the high-total games. Our two favorite Centers come from those two high-total games (Portland 126.25 implied points, Atlanta 122.25). As indicated by the total, it is a slightly better spot for Nurkic – Houston is one of the fastest teams on the slate and probably the worst defense, while Washington is fast but a good defense. That being said, Capela is a bit more productive per-minute and he has a higher minutes ceiling (although the minutes floor for both Capela & Nurkic are comparable. Capela can get 30+ minutes (although his minutes are volatile to the point that he does have games where he plays minutes in the low 20s), while Nurkic doesn’t really get more than high-20s minutes.
Fades
Lonzo Ball (1.2x) – He doesn’t have a huge multiplier on him, so you’re really going to need for Ball to fill iit up in order for him to pay off. The type of roster depletion that would usually create good spots for a guy like Ball is there, Ingram & Zion remain out. Memphis would typically be a good matchup, but given how high slate totals are tonight (New Orleans’ 109.25 implied total is actually lowest on the slate), the matchup doesn’t really play up as much as on nights where more slow teams are playing. Lastly, Ball’s minutes ceiling are less than ideal. He never gets minutes in the 40s (guys like LeVert & Sexton do have 40-minute ceilings), and his high turnover does seem to take away a few points from his scoring total.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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