Do you have a case of the Mondays? If so, our 7-game NBA slate tonight is the best cure around! Get that extra boost from the team from Advanced Sports Analytics who did all the research so you don’t have too. See their picks and projections below!
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Guard
De’Aaron Fox (1.3x) – There isn’t any shiny component of the game that stands out for Fox. He is simply a high-usage player (consistently in the high-20s to mid-30s usage rate), with good offensive & defensive efficiency, in the highest total game on the slate (237), at 1.3x.
Donovan Mitchell (1.2x) – Mitchell is also a high-usage guard with a decent multiplier, he brings a little less defensive pop than Fox. But with Mike Conley & Jordan Clarkson both out tonight there is plenty of offensive usage up for grabs, Mitchell figures to be a primary beneficiary. Over the past 30 days, Washington has played at a blistering 103.2 possessions/48 pace, pacing up their opponent by more than 5 possessions/48, both slate-highs. A 235.5 game total isn’t far behind that of SAC/NO.
Forward
Brandon Ingram (1.35x) – A lot of the game environment stuff that makes Fox a highly-projected play also figures to benefit Ingram’s projection. Add in the fact that Lonzo Ball is expected to miss yet another game. Zion also projects favorably, our model currently gives a slight edge to Ingram when you consider his 1.35x multiplier.
Kevin Durant (1.15x) – We’re still not expecting Steve Nash to fully unleash KD, but his minutes are ramping up – 19 minutes last Wednesday, 24 minutes on Saturday. But even if he doesn’t get his full run, he has the green light on offense. His Saturday usage rate was close to 50%, so even if he plays minutes in the mid-20s he could still get there on usage & efficiency alone. Minnesota is also perhaps the best matchup in the NBA right now, over the last 30 days they are allowing opponent offensive rating & team score averages in excess of 120, both tops on the slate by significant margins.
Center
Rudy Gobert (1.25x) – The same positive indicators for Donovan Mitchell apply to Rudy Gobert. Gobert is perhaps less of a direct beneficiary of Utah’s backcourt injuries, but he also makes up for that on the boards & on the defensive end.
Jakob Poeltl (1.55x) – Poeltl has become one of our favorite tournament plays at the Center position. He is Center-only eligible, so anyone who rosters the likely chalky Gobert will by default not have Poeltl. Gorgui Dieng is expected to be out tonight, since he was acquired by the Spurs, in the 3 games he has played Poeltl has averaged 28.2 minutes per game compared to the 4 games Dieng has missed as a member of the Spurs in which Poeltl has averaged 34.76 regulation minutes per game (3 total overtimes played in those 4 games).
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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