From 2013 – 2019, the team with homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals won the NBA Championship every time except in 2016 when the Warriors blew a 3-1 series lead to the Cavs.
Of course, the Phoenix Suns own homecourt in this series and currently have the homecourt edge by winning Games 1 and 2. However, tonight’s game will be played in Milwaukee where Giannis Antetokounmpo and company have shined all postseason. Can we expect the Bucks players to provide the most fantasy value in Game 4? Let’s break it down.
Low-Multiplier Building Block
Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x // 1.5x)
We might as well go back to the well with Giannis. Consistency has been the theme with Giannis for this entire postseason while healthy and he has not shown any ill side effects from his recent knee injury. While Giannis has played great on the road and even when the Bucks lose, it’s on his home court where he excels.
According to the Game Score metric that is featured on the Basketball Reference website and designed by NBA analyst John Hollinger, Giannis’s best Game Score this postseason happened last Sunday when he popped off for 41 points on 14 for 23 shooting from the field while pulling down 13 boards and dishing out 6 assists while turning over the ball just once. He even had his best free-throw shooting night for this postseason by going 13 for 17 from the charity stripe.
Giannis is averaging 31.8 points per game and 13.5 rebounds per game at home during the playoffs while his road numbers are 27.2 points per game and 12.4 rebounds per game. Those road stats are impressive but he is just better at home with 4 of his top 6 Game Scores taking place in Milwaukee this postseason.
High-Multiplier Flyer
Pat Connaughton (2.2x // 3.3x)
Connaughton has been exceptional as a role player for the Bucks in the NBA Finals. He is getting the minutes and field goal attempts and has shot the ball well (at least 50% accuracy). For comparison purposes, during the NBA Finals, Connaughton has averaged 30.7 minutes per game and seven field goal attempts per game with most of those attempts from behind the arc. Prior to the NBA Finals, Connaughton was used sparingly in the three other playoff series with just 21.5 minutes per game and just 4.6 field goal attempts per game.
The result has been stronger in SuperDraft numbers this postseason with an average SuperDraft score of close to 20 in the NBA Finals. Connaughton cracked 20 SuperDraft points just 4 times in the previous 17 playoff games. Needless to say, the Bucks are leaning on Connaughton right now and so should you, especially with his high multiplier and increased usage.
Fade Consideration
Chris Paul (1.2x // 1.8x)
When the Suns win, Paul is a big reason why. Paul’s best numbers this postseason have occurred when the Suns end up victorious. Paul has achieved a Game Score metric of 20 or better seven times during the playoffs and all seven of those occurrences were when the Suns won the game. In fact, his average Game Score for the Suns’ twelve postseason wins when Paul was on the court is 20.5. For the Suns five postseason losses, Paul’s average Game Score falls to 10.4.
If you research Game Score, it combines most counting stats for NBA players so clearly we are seeing a major drop in production with Paul when the Suns don’t win. The point spread tonight is 4.5 points in favor of the Bucks. No question the Suns are very capable of winning on the road even when they are an underdog. Still, the Bucks are an exceptional team at home and they will be plenty motivated to even the series before it heads back to Phoenix. A Suns’ loss seems to have a strong correlation with Paul’s overall performance.
Projections
When building your lineup for tonight, give strong consideration as to how you feel the game flow will be. If you are confident that the Bucks will have another convincing win this evening, you would be wise to have Giannis as your building block with a role player such as Connaughton in your lineup while fading some of the big names on the Suns.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
