We’ve got a huge Game 6 tonight with the Utah Jazz and the LA Clippers. We know LA is hurting without the on-court presence of Kawhi. It’s going to take a team effort to pull it out over the Utah Jazz, who finished the season with the best record in the NBA. Let’s dive in on the numbers from our partners at Advanced Sports Analytics to see what they think about tonights plays and fades.
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Low-Multiplier Building Block
Paul George (1.05x // 1.6x) – George shined during Game 5 and should continue to exceed expectations tonight when the Clippers return to LA to close out the Jazz. For the last two regular seasons, George’s usage % and fantasy points per minute experienced a big boost without Kawhi Leonard. With Leonard on the floor George’s usage % from 2019 – 2021 is 30.3% and averaged 1.21 fantasy points per minute. Without Leonard, George’s usage % jumps to 34.4% and his fantasy points per minute rises to 1.31. During Game 5, George had a usage % of 37.4% and surpassed 1.5 fantasy points per minute (a typical benchmark for superstar NBA players). Starters in these NBA playoffs are easily eclipsing 40 minutes per game. Do the math and you have yourself a player who will serve a great foundation for your roster construction.
High-Multiplier Flyer
Terance Mann (2.5x // 3.75x) – Mann has the highest multiplier among the 10 projected starters in the Jazz – Clippers game tonight. With a usage % of close to 20 and an expectation of 25 – 30 minutes played based on Advanced Sports Analytics projections, Mann should continue to produce as he did in Game 5. NBA teams have been maintaining a very tight 8 – 9 man rotation of players with the starters getting the lion’s share of the minutes. When Mann was thrusted into the starter’s role during the 2020 – 2021 regular season, he did not disappoint. In the 10 games Mann started this past regular season, he reached double digits in scoring 7 times and had per game averages of 30 minutes, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and a combined total of 1 blocked shot/steal. With his high multiplier, we are looking at a 50 – 55 fantasy point night.
Fade Consideration
Mike Conley (1.35x // 2.05x) – It seems that Conley will finally make his debut in this series (he still has a questionable tag at the time of this writing). All you have to do is observe how Harden has fared in his return for Brooklyn with the same type of injury (hamstring) as evidence for fading Conley. Hamstring injuries are very difficult to return from if not given the proper time for recovery. The accelerated pace of the NBA regular season did not do these NBA players any favors from a conditioning standpoint. Stick with the healthy guys for tonight.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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