The NBA main event tonight without a doubt is this match-up between the Celtics and Wizards. The Wizards have been red-hot in the 2nd half of the season behind the inspired play of Russell Westbrook. The Celtics have stumbled all season long and will rely heavily on Jayson Tatum with Jaylen Brown out. So who will be the fantasy difference makers in this one? Let’s get into it!
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Low-Multiplier Building Block
Jayson Tatum (1.25x // 1.9x) – Yes, yes, yes: Russell Westbrook is a guy you can build around, we’re not saying fade Russ by highlighting Tatum. But Tatum has a little extra juice with the 1.25x multiplier (compared to Russ’ flat 1x), and Tatum has injury considerations working his way. Tatum’s 2020-21 with/without Brown splits are +2.7% usage rate, +3.6 minutes per game, and +10.5 fantasy points per game when Brown has been inactive. Westbrook also has the return of Brad Beal working against him, his with/without Beal splits are -5.7% usage rate, -2.5% minutes per game, -11.5 fantasy points per game when Beal is active.
High-Multiplier Flyer
Kemba Walker (2.05x // 3.05x) – Kemba is far from a sleeper, but in a game which features four players under 2x, Walker stands out as being one of the most solid options outside of the top tier of players. Like Tatum, Walker also benefits from Brown being injured – his with/without Brown splits are +4.1% usage rate, +3.4 minutes per game, +4.3 fantasy points per game. Marcus Smart has positive without-Brown splits, but at 1.9x, and with weaker splits Walker is the preferred beneficiary of the All Star swingman’s injury.
Player to Fade
Rui Hachimua (2.15x // 3.25x) – With Beal back it warrants some Hachimura pessimism. Rui’s with/without Beal splits this year have been -5.6% usage rate, -2.3 minutes per game, -4.7 fantasy points per game. So when Beal plays Rui is playing less, is shooting less per possession he’s on the floor, and all of this is leading to fewer fantasy points when Beal plays. It makes sense – between Russ & Beal there are a ton of shots accounted for that leaves little opportunity for other Wizards to have big offensive games.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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