The NBA season is back, and that means every Tuesday I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week I will be bringing this article to SuperDraft to break down and analyze the slate of NBA games for the night, as well as a review of the article the following day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap adding an extra layer to the lineup-building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports we play and analyze. With that being the case, finding the best value or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlate lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
The Plays
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls (1.25x score multiplier)
1.25x is a generous multiplier for a player with LaVine’s upside. Philly has been middle of the pack in terms of defensive aptitude. Despite his headaches, without Ben Simmons their quality of defense is going to be worse than last year. So far this season, LaVine has just one game with a usage rate below 26%. He is going to see significant volume and his ceiling is very high with this multiplier.
Malik Beasley, Minnesota Timberwolves (1.9x)
Over the last couple of seasons, Beasley has been fantasy relevant whenever he has been given the playing time. With D’Angelo Russell out, that should be no different. Last game without Russell, Beasley played 32 minutes at 1.9x multiplier. If Beasley is going to see north of 30 minutes again, as a solid per-minute fantasy producer, he is one of my favorite plays of the night.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (1x)
We aren’t getting any additional multiplier for the Curry, but I still love him here. This Charlotte team is bottom five in defensive efficiency, and both Charlotte and Golden State are top 13 in pace this year, so we should have a good fantasy environment on our hands. We know Steph is going to get his shots up, so in a positive matchup. I am more than happy to play him without a multiplier — especially if that’ll keep his ownership down.
A Review
To sum things up, we have a night of solid guard options. Stephen Curry is one of just three guards on the slate without an additional multiplier, but I still love his upside in this spot. Malik Beasley should be in a great spot, and that 1.9x multiplier should further his upside. Zach LaVine is extremely talented and always has a 40-real-point (or more) performance in his pocket, so at a 1.25x multiplier it is hard to pass that up.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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