Every week during the NBA season, I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week, I will be breaking down and analyzing that night’s slate of NBA games. The following day, I will be returning to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap, adding an extra layer to the lineup building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports. With that being the case, finding the best value, or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlated lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
The Plays
Jalen Brunson (1.6x score multiplier) and Kristaps Porzingis (1.3x), Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic has been ruled out, so we should expect some nice boosts in usage and volume for both Brunson and Porzingis. The multipliers are very enticing here. In my projections, Brunson is 6 points above the 2nd highest projected player after accounting for multipliers, so it would be pretty difficult for me not to love him tonight.
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (1.3x)
Edwards isn’t benefiting from a player missing the game, but he is benefiting from taking a ton of shots each and every night, to go along with this very interesting 1.3x multiplier. This should also be a very nice matchup, as both teams are top five in pace this season, so I am expecting lots of fantasy production.
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat (1.5x)
Herro gets a 1.5x multiplier, and if either Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler sit, he is likely a SuperDraft lock. But even if they both play I still like him here. Herro has a near 28% usage rate this season, he has continued to see the volume and the production.
Here are some of the other top projected SuperDraft plays for me Wednesday:
Honorable Mentions
Overall, Wednesday is a night where we need to monitor the news very closely. Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Brunson are going to get huge bumps from injury news, but Tyler Herro (who I like regardless) is another player who could see a massive bump. Anthony Edwards finds his way into my top plays due to a very enticing game environment.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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