The NBA season is back, and that means every Tuesday I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week I will be bringing this article to SuperDraft to break down and analyze the slate of NBA games for the night, as well as a review of the article the following day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap adding an extra layer to the lineup-building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports we play and analyze. With that being the case, finding the best value or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlate lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
For Tuesday’s five-game slate, it is likely best to worry less about the negative correlation part I just referenced due to the lack of options in general, but still something to keep in mind.
Luka Doncic (1x) and Kristaps Porzingis (1.3x), Dallas Mavericks
I listed both of these guys for a couple of reasons: First, they have a great matchup against the fast-paced Houston defense. But secondly, and mainly, playing one of these guys will be a priority for me. Luka doesn’t have any additional multiplier, so if you don’t like that, going to Porzingis makes a ton of sense. One, if not both, of these guys are bound to produce due to the nature of the matchup and their roles on this team.
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (1.25x)
Gobert will likely be asked to be on the floor often Tuesday, and at 1.25x his main obstacle will likely be foul trouble, which is always a factor when matching up against Nikola Jokic.
Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors (1.55x)
We wrote up Poole last week and I’m going right back to him. If you are worried about a potential blowout in this game, or just don’t have to use Stephen Curry at 1x, using Poole at 1.55 makes a ton of sense. He has been the secondary scorer in this offense so far this season and this matchup against OKC is a very good one.
Overall, SuperDraft NBA is tricky because you can play anybody you want and with the top 6-7 guys in terms of projections all having a 1.25x multiplier or lower, it is really easy to just plug most of them in. However, the higher-multiplier guys like Poole should provide some contrarian aspects to your lineups.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.