With a full slate tonight, there is a lot of great baseball to watch. The two MVP favorites take the mound, with deGrom getting the Brewers at home, and Ohtani looking to bounce back with a tough Red Sox team at home. Take a look at what the ASA projections have in store for tonight’s MLB slate.
Pitchers
Framber Valdez (2x) – SP – HOU vs. OAK –
This is Framber Valdez’s 3rd time in a row getting highlighted as a top start. He did not disappoint the last outing, going 7 innings, with 2 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, and most importantly a win. The multiplier is still slated as 2x for Framber, with one of his tougher matchups of the season tonight with the Oakland Athletics. Valdez’s real value comes in pitching behind the Houston Astros’ lineup with a 2x multiplier.
Not only can Valdez throw quality innings, but the value of his probability of getting a win is also too significant to pass up. Valdez, as mentioned previously, has numbers consistently above the slate averages, and while Oakland has a strong record, their offense is only middle of the pack. Look for the Astros to provide enough run support and propel Valdez to a win tonight.
Ian Anderson (1.65x) – P – ATL vs. PIT –
Out of a lot of the top pitchers on the slate, there is a lot to like with Ian Anderson on the bump against the Pirates today. Anderson has high win equity, going against one of the worst teams in the league, the Pirates whiff rate of 26.8% is very high compared to the slate average of 23.2%. Anderson’s whiff rate is as well above the slate average of pitchers, 26.7% compared to 22.9%.
Despite Anderson’s strong season with a 3.35 ERA, good for 27th in the MLB, his 5-4 record falls well below that performance. The Braves have struggled to provide run support at times, but with a favorable matchup against 2-5 Chad Kuhl and the Pirates, expect the Braves to deliver.
Hitters
Texas Rangers Stacks (Adolis Garcia 1.75x, Nate Lowe 1.6x, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa 1.55x) at Detroit Tigers –
The Rangers have a favorable match-up tonight against a struggling Tigers team. Jose Urena has been abysmal recently, with a 12.50 ERA in the month of June in his 5 starts. He allowed 25 Earned runs in 18 innings, and was 0-4, with 1 strikeout in 3 of the 5 appearances. The Rangers haven’t been any better than the Tigers, however, their three bright spots are the line-up we’re looking to stack tonight. Adolis Garcia burst onto the scene, with 20 home runs, a .522 slugging percentage, and 58 RBI’s he’d be the centerpiece of any offense. Along with Garcia, the 1 and 2 hitters on the Rangers have produced as well, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa has a .263 average with 15 stolen bases, and 90 base hits, leading to 44 runs scored this year. Nate Lowe’s had a solid year as well with a .261 average, .356 OBP thanks to his ability to draw walks, 44 on the season. Look for this underrated Rangers top of the order to get some production against an equally lousy Tigers team.
Fades
Milwaukee Brewers Stacks (Omar Narvaez 1.35x, Christian Yelich 1.1x, Avisail Garcia 1.35x) at New York Mets –
This is the easiest fade of the week, the Brewers get the most difficult match-up in baseball tonight facing Jacob deGrom. As if that’s not enough explanation, deGrom’s whiff rate of 36.6% is massively above the 23.2% slate average, and he’s first in practically every meaningful statistic. Not only is it an awful match-up, the Brewer’s in their own right have struggled, with a team line-up whiff rate well above slate average this sets up to be a double-digit strikeout night.
DeGrom is coming off of 14 K’s on the road vs. the Braves, look for him to put up an even higher number potentially against a Brewer’s team that struggles to make contact. Fade the complete Brewer’s order tonight against the MVP favorite.
Projections
Take advantage of some favorable match-ups tonight with Framber Valdez pitching against the Athletics, and Ian Anderson on the hill pitching against the Pirates. While the MVP favorites draw all the attention, look Valdez and Anderson for strong value on the slate. Be sure to steer clear of the Brewers as well who get an impossible match-up against deGrom.
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