The Houston Astros finally cooled down after splitting their four-game series with the Detroit Tigers. However, Houston is facing the lowly Baltimore Orioles again. Do our partners at Advanced Sports Analytics think you should jump back on Houston players tonight? This topic will be covered but first the top pitchers ASA likes tonight.
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta (2x) – SP – MIL vs. CHC
Freddy Peralta did not disappoint in his last start going 6 innings, with 1 hit, 0 earned runs, and 10 strikeouts. There’s no reason to go away from him tonight, as he is the projection’s most valued pitcher by a wide margin. Peralta offers tremendous value with a 2x multiplier, and he’s going up against a Cubs team that we’ve been highlighting lately as a struggling offense. The Cubs are coming off 3 losses in a row to the Dodgers with no more than 2 runs in any of those games.
The Brewers are favored tonight providing strong win equity, and with Peralta’s monster 32.6% whiff rate, compared to the slate average of 23.2%, expect him to have a chance at another high scoring night. As alluded to, the Cub’s offense is deceivingly weak, their contact rate of .70 is below the slate average of .74, and their team whiff rate of 31% is significantly above the slate average of 23%. Look for Peralta to finish off his monster June where he had a 1.48 ERA in 4 starts, only gave up 4 earned runs in over 24 innings, and averaged just shy of 8 strikeouts an appearance.
Zack Greinke (1.65x) – SP – HOU vs. BAL
Greinke has had a really strong season so far, he has an 8-2 record and a 3.56 ERA. His last outing was against the same Orioles he will be facing tonight, he went 7.1 innings, giving up 5 hits and 1 earned run getting the win on the road. The Astros have monster win equity tonight, favored by – 300 in vegas to win this game. Greinke’s had strong command this season, his walk rate of 3.9% is the lowest on the slate tonight, and well below the 7.3% average.
His barrel rate and weak contact rate both are better than the average for the slate. Grienke gets a favorable matchup tonight facing one of the worst teams in the league, the Baltimore Orioles at home. The win equity for the Astros along with Greinke’s dominant performance’s this season project him to be a very viable option on the slate tonight.
Hitters
Houston Astros Stacks (Kyle Tucker 1.7x, Yordan Alvarez 1.15x, Michael Brantley 1.25x, Abraham Toro 1.75x) vs. BAL
The Astros Stack got rained out the last time we tried to play them on Friday, and tonight we’re looking at another favorable matchup. The Astros are facing Baltimore’s Thomas Eshelman who’s coming off a brutal outing versus the Blue Jays. He gave up 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4 innings of work. Eshelman’s 14.5% whiff rate is the lowest on the card tonight, and the Astros’ 80% contact rate is the best in the league right now.
The Astros whiff rate of 14% is also the lowest in the league, this matchup is a nightmare for Orioles fans, and with Greinke on the hill for the Astros, this game can get out of hand quick. Expect Astros’ hitters to get upwards of 5 at-bats and stack runs against the Orioles tonight. As we alluded to last Friday, there’s no reason to get fancy when the best offense in the league gets the worst pitcher on the slate, make sure to work some Astros’ hitters into your line-ups.
Fades
Baltimore Orioles Stacks (Anthony Santander 1.3x, Ryan Mountcastle 1.4x, Trey Mancini 1.25x, Maikel Franco 1.35x) vs. HOU
It only makes sense if we like Greinke tonight, to avoid this Orioles line-up. As one of the worst teams in the league, the Orioles struggle in every facet of the game, although the offense has been a slight exception. The Orioles line-up contact rate, and walk rate are a few percentage points below average, and the rest of the key metrics are around average or slightly below as well, however, no offensive stat’s would point to them being awful.
The Orioles’ bright spots this season have been Cedric Mullins who’s hitting over .300 with 13 home runs, and Mancini and Mountcastle who have 14 and 13 home runs respectively with reasonable OBP and SLG numbers. With this said, this match-up on the road against a top pitcher in the league this season poses little to no value for this struggling Orioles team and it is better to look elsewhere for production.
Projections
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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