Introduction
Tonight features a 5-game main slate, as many teams are playing in the afternoon and the rest of the teams have the day off. In this shortened slate, we’ll look for the most valuable pitchers, and the best ways to fade consensus.
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta (1.85x) – SP – MIL at. PIT –
Peralta was pitching a gem in his last start before he was pulled after 4 innings of scoreless pitching. Brewer’s manager Craig Counsell said he’ll get a normal appearance in his next start, so we’re not worried about that same outcome again. Peralta’s 2.29 ERA and .89 WHIP are good for 6th and 3rd in the MLB respectively. His 140k’s are tied for 10th in the MLB.
Peralta has been completely dominant. His whiff rate of 34.2% is massive compared to the slate average of 24.5%. Peralta and the Brewers are massive favorites tonight, look for him to dominate tonight and if he pitches late into the game he’ll have a chance at double-digit strikeouts.
Joe Musgrove (1.75x) – SP – SDP vs. COL –
Musgrove and the Padres are massive favorites tonight, the line in Vegas is -270 with a run total of 8. Despite a 6-7 win-loss record, Musgrove has quietly been having a dominant season. His 3.13 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are good for 18th and 10th in the MLB respectively. He has 128k’s which is tied for 28th in the MLB.
Musgrove has solid advanced metrics, his whiff rate of 27.1% is above the slate average of 24.5%, his walk rate is 6.3% compared to the slate average of 8.4%. With a favorable matchup tonight against the Colorado Rockies, look for Musgrove and the Padres to dominate and get the win.
Hitters
Detroit Tigers Stacks (Robbie Grossman 1.65x, Eric Hasse 1.7x, Jeimer Candelario 1.65x) vs. Baltimore Orioles –
The Tigers are facing Orioles rookie Alexander Wells tonight. Wells has pitched 10.1 innings in 3 appearances this season, allowing 10 hits, 5 earned runs, and 6 walks. He has a whiff rate of 19.2%, below the slate average of 24.5%. The Tigers are favored tonight, and the game is projected to be high-scoring. The Tigers have let us down in the past few offensive features, but after putting up 17 runs yesterday they showed what they are capable of.
Consider this 1, 3, 5 hitter stack as these players offer the most value, and don’t be afraid to throw in the 4 hitter Miguel Cabrera or to take a flier on a bottom-of-the-order guy like Derek Hill. Look for the Tiger’s offense to stay hot and put up some runs tonight.
Fades
Colorado Rockies (C.J. Cron 1.25x, Elias Diaz 1.85x, Charlie Blackmon 1.15x, Trevor Story 1.1x) vs. San Diego Padres-
As we alluded to above, the San Diego Padres are massive favorites in what’s projected to be a low-scoring game. Vegas is expecting very little from the Rockies offensively, and in a matchup with Joe Musgrove, there is no reason to get fancy here with the Rockies offense. The Colorado Rockies hitters are priced aggressively and to have a ceiling performance, they would need to put up dominant performances. Avoid the Rockies’ offense in the short 5 game slate.
Projections
In this small 5 game Thursday night main slate, take advantage of one of our favorite pitchers, Freddy Peralta as he goes against the Pirates tonight. Look for Joe Musgrove to assert his dominance in a game the Padres are heavily favored in. Finally, expect the Detroit Tigers to do right by us tonight and keep the offensive show carrying over from last night.
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