In a short Monday night slate, there are limited pitching match-ups worth considering. We’ll sort through the high multiplier pitchers and find which pitchers are offering the best value. Finally, we’ll decide which pitchers to attack and which to fade with our offensive stacks tonight.
Pitchers
Luis Garcia (1.95x) – SP – HOU at. SEA –
Garcia has had a strong season, bouncing back from an 0-3 record to start the season, to a 7-5 W-L record currently. He has a 2.86 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and 105 strikeouts this season, all incredibly solid numbers. He’s been stellar in July despite only two starts, and he’s coming off a 6 inning, 3 hits, 0 earned run win in his last start on July 20th.
Garcia has incredible value pitching behind the Astros’ lineup tonight, the Astros are heavy favorites tonight despite being on the road facing a solid Seattle Mariners team. Look for Garcia and the Astros to get the win on Garcia’s high multiplier tonight.
Nick Pivetta (1.95x) – SP – BOS vs. TOR –
Pivetta has an 8-4 record this season pitching behind the strong Red Sox’s offense and quality run support. His 4.37 ERA is 50th in the MLB among qualified pitchers and his 117 strikeouts are tied for 30th. Pivetta has relatively average numbers across the board, both his whiff rate and walk rate are in line with the slate averages.
Pivetta’s 1.95x multiplier tonight offers tremendous value if he gets sufficient run support to get the win. The Red Sox are slightly favored at home tonight, and if Pivetta can receive the same support he did in his win over the Blue Jays last week, he’ll have a chance to have the same success again tonight.
Hitters
Detroit Tigers Stacks (Akil Baddoo 1.85x, Robbie Grossman 1.65x, Jeimer Candelario 1.7x) at Minnesota Twins –
The Tigers had a reality check this weekend, getting swept by the Kansas City Royals after their 7 game win streak. The projections are high on some of the Tigers’ hitters. Akil Baddoo is in the leadoff spot tonight with a 1.85x multiplier, he’s had a great season with a .272 average, .481 slugging percentage, and 14 stolen bases, and at only 22 years old. Despite the .226 average, Grossman can hit for power with 15 home runs on the year and he has a slugging percentage above .400. The final piece of this stack is Jeimer Candelario who has a .266 average, with a .399 slugging percentage.
The Tigers are facing Micheal Pineda tonight, who’s struggled the past few months. He’s dealt with some injuries and has had only 5 starts, with a 7.94 ERA in June, and a 5.23 ERA in July. Look for the Tigers to take advantage of these struggles tonight and get to the Twins’ weak bullpen early.
Fades
Colorado Rockies Stacks (Charlie Blackmon 1.15x, Trevor Story 1.1x, Matt Adams 1.7x) at. Los Angeles Angels –
The Rockies get a match-up against superstar and MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani’s 30.5% whiff rate is one of the best on the slate tonight, and with plenty of higher ERA pitchers on the slate tonight, steer clear of the Rockies. The run total in this game is the lowest on the slate, and with the Angels favored, the Rockies are projecting only a few runs tonight. Steer clear of the Rockies and look for offensive production elsewhere.
Projections
In this short Monday night slate, look for the high multiplier pitchers with offensive support to take advantage tonight. Finally, look for the Tigers to get back on track with their mid-season turnaround and avoid superstar Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight.
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