In a full 14 game main slate tonight, a bunch of solid pitchers take the hill. We’ll sort through which pitchers offer the most value to start tonight, and which pitchers are worth attacking with offensive stacks.
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta (1.95x) – SP – MIL vs. CHW –
Peralta has been on a tear this season. His 2.39 ERA and .90 WHIP are good for 7th and 4th in the MLB respectively. He’s worth taking the risk against the Chicago White Sox’s tonight on a 1.95x multiplier. Peralta has an impressive whiff rate of 33.1%, well above the slate average of 23.7%, and the highest on the card tonight. His 135 strikeouts are good for 11th best in the MLB and he’s reached double-digit strikeouts in five of his appearances this season. Look for Peralta to keep his dominant season going against the White Sox’s tonight.
Tyler Mahle (1.9x) – SP – CIN vs. STL –
Mahle has had a solid season, he has a 7-3 record with a 3.93 ERA and 126 strikeouts this season. Mahle has an above-average whiff rate of 27.3%, and he’s averaged 7 strikeouts in his 3 appearances the month of July. The Reds are solid favorites tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals, which provides Mahle with solid win equity.
The Cardinals are a bottom 10 offensive team by most offensive rankings, despite being a game above .500. Look for Mahle to build on his strong first half of the season by coming through on his win equity tonight.
Hitters
Cincinatti Reds Stacks (Jonathan India 1.85x, Jesse Winker 1.6x, Tyler Stephenson 1.9x, Joey Votto 1.55x) vs. St. Louis Cardinals –
Hitting behind one of our starting pitchers, the Cincinnati Red’s offense offers a ton of value tonight against Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc has one of the lowest whiff rates on the slate tonight at 18.6%, and his average fastball velocity of 85 mph is the lowest on the slate. The Reds offense has been surprising this season, with a team average of .246 and OBP of .328, which are 7th and 6th in the MLB respectively. With a favorable match-up tonight against weaker starting pitching, look for the top of the Reds order to put up a dominant performance.
Fades
Altanta Braves Stacks (Ozzie Albies 1.15x, Orlando Arcia 1.7x, Austin Riley 1.5x) at. Phillidelphia Phillies –
While we started the Braves offense last night, and they gave us great production, tonight we’re fading them in a brutal match-up against Phillies Ace Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has a 2.44 ERA and a .99 WHIP which is good for 8th and 9th in the MLB respectively. Despite the upsides the Braves offense has, on a packed 14 game slate there is never a reason to start an offense facing a dominant pitcher. Look elsewhere for your offensive production tonight.
Projections
In this loaded Friday night slate, look to high multiplier pitchers Freddy Peralta and Tyler Mahle to get the win and put up strikeouts. Look for the Cincinnati Reds to take advantage of Wade LeBlanc and put up some runs, and fade the Braves in a brutal pitching match-up.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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