As a result of a five-game slate this afternoon, the main slate tonight is shorter than usual with only eight games. We’ll sort through the pitching match-ups and give the top options to have in your line-ups tonight. Finally, we’ll go through offenses to ride and offenses to fade.
Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. (1.75x) – SP – HOU vs. CLE –
Lance McCullers has been dominant this season, he has a 7-2 record, a 2.80 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP. McCullers Jr. has a whiff rate of 28.5% which is well above the slate average of 22.2%. He also pitches deep into games, averaging 99 pitches an appearance, compared to the 84 slate average. McCullers Jr. is in peak form after a short injury in late May to June. He’s coming off a 7 inning 2 hits, 1 earned run, 10 strikeout performance against one of the top offenses in the MLB, the Chicago White Sox’s.
McCullers Jr. will have the chance to take advantage of a weak Indians offense that is bottom 10 in most offensive categories. The Astros are massive favorites tonight, offering high win equity for McCullers Jr. and the rest of the team to get the job done tonight. Look for the Astros to show why they’re one of the best teams in the league tonight and take care of the Indians.
Robbie Ray (1.65x) – SP – TOR vs. BOS –
It’s been rare this season for the Boston Red Sox’s to be such heavy underdogs, but with the performance Robbie Ray has had this season, the Blue Jays are -200 favorites. Robbie Ray has a 29.6% whiff rate, above the 22.5% slate average. He’s been dominant as of late, he hasn’t given up an earned run in his last two starts, going 13.2 innings, with only 5 hits.
The Red Sox’s have Garrett Richards on the mound tonight, and he’ll have to face the dominant Blue Jays offense. The combination of Robbie Ray’s pitching and the Blue Jays monster offense against a weaker pitcher offers Robbie Ray high win equity and a high chance at a strong performance as well. Look for Robbie Ray to give the Blue Jays a good shot at a win tonight.
Hitters
Texas Rangers Stacks (Adolis Garcia 1.8x, Nate Lowe 1.8x, Isiah Kiner-Falefa 1.75x) at Detroit Tigers –
The Texas Rangers are on the road tonight facing the Detroit Tigers, and despite a lot of team struggles, the top-of-the-Rangers order has had some success. The Rangers face Matt Manning tonight, who has a whiff rate of 12.3%, close to half the slate average of 22.5%. Until he’s proven he can settle down and has a role in the big leagues, take advantage of him with the Rangers top of the order.
Adolis Garcia has had an incredible season with 22 home runs, 63 RBI’s, and a .506 slugging percentage. Nate Lowe and Isiah Kiner-Falefa have both had solid seasons, with averages in the mid .250’s, and slugging percentages pushing .400. Despite the Ranger’s trouble elsewhere, look for their offense to be a sneaky underutilized stack tonight.
Fades
Cleveland Indians Stacks (Franmil Reyes 1.2x, Oscar Mercado 1.4x, Jose Ramirez 1.15x) at Houston Astros –
The Cleveland Indians get the match-up we alluded to at the top of the article with Lance McCullers Jr. Steer clear of the Indians team, despite being middle of the pack, their offense has been what’s kept them from full success, and tonight projects the same way. With the Indian’s projected as heavy underdogs by Vegas and such a low run total, Vegas is projecting most of the runs from the Astros and little offensive production from the Indians. Look elsewhere for offensive production in your line-ups tonight.
Projections
In this Wednesday night Main slate, look for two strong pitchers with mid-tier multipliers to keep up their dominant seasons. Both Lance McCullers Jr. and Robbie Ray are pitching tonight as heavy favorites behind strong offenses, and both project to get the win tonight. On the offensive side, look to potentially fade consensus with a Texas Rangers top of the order stack. Finally, fade the Indians and never be afraid to fade any strong pitching match-up.
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