In the 7-game shorter Thursday night main slate, there are a lot of solid high multiplier pitching options to go with. With some solid pitchers on the mound tonight, we’ll look to avoid those offenses and target line-up stacks facing struggling pitchers.
Pitchers
Tyler Mahle (1.85x) – SP – CIN at MIL –
Mahle has been a key strength for the surprisingly good Cincinnati Reds this season. His 7-3 record, 3.63 ERA, and 112 K’s are good for 18th, 37th, and 20th rankings in the MLB. Mahle’s success is anchored in his statistics which are almost all above average. His whiff rate of 26% is above the slate average of 23.8%, his barrel rate of 6.4% is significantly below the 8.2%, Mahle gets a deceivingly favorable match-up tonight with the Brewer’s who despite having one of the best records in baseball struggled offensively.
The Brewers team offense ranks 29th in batting average, they have a line-up contact rate of 66.3% well below the slate average of 73.4%, and the worst contact rate of the teams playing tonight. Despite these factors, this is forecasted to be a close game, so there is potential upside if Mahle can get the win tonight. Look for a strong outing from Mahle tonight, with potential for a lot of strikeouts.
Taijuan Walker (1.9x) – P – NYM at PIT –
Walker has the second-highest win probability tonight with the Mets on the road taking on one of the worst teams in baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s easy to get overshadowed when on a pitching staff with Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman, but don’t overlook the monster season Walker is having. His 2.44 ERA is good for 11th in the MLB, and in the 15 games he’s pitched in this year the Mets have gone on to win 12 of them. His 7-3 record, although strong, doesn’t fully illuminate how strong he’s performed this year. Walker has beneficial weak contract rates, barrel rates, and while his whiff rate is below average, he’s shown an ability to strike batters out with 87 K’s this season.
Hitters
Toronto Blue Jays Stacks (Bo Bichette 1.35x, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.25x, Marcus Semien 1.1x, Teoscar Hernandez 1.15x) at Baltimore Orioles –
With the success we had from the Blue Jays offense last night, there’s no reason to get away from them as they have another incredible match-up tonight. The only difference in tonight’s stack is adding the 4-hitter, Teoscar Hernandez, to the mix as well. He’s batting .297, good for 18th in the MLB, and has a mix of power and speed as well.
The Orioles have Keegan Akin pitching tonight, he has an 0-4 record with a 7.46 ERA. He started with a reasonable month of May but has struggled even more recently with an 8.61 ERA in June, and a 12.00 ERA in his most recent start last week. In the 11 games Akin has appeared in, the Orioles have gone on to lose 10 of them. As mentioned Vlad Jr., Bichette, and Semien have been absolute monsters this season and with a match-up like this tonight they should have exposure in everyone’s line-ups.
Fades
San Diego Padres Stacks (Victor Caratini 1.5x, Manny Machado 1.1x, Will Myers 1.35x, Eric Hosmer 1.35x) vs. Washington Nationals –
The Padres get a tough match-up tonight against Max Scherzer. His 33.6% whiff rate to start the season is well above the slate average of 23.3%. The Padres are a solid offense with a team batting average of .242, OBP of .325. This fade is less about the Padres offense, who have propelled the team to a top 10 record, and more about avoiding this match-up with 3x Cy Young pitcher.
Projections
After the success we had with the Blue Jays offense last night, we’ll look for them to replicate it again facing a struggling pitcher Keegan Akin and the bottom of the pack Orioles offense. With the high multiplier pitchers tonight, we’ll start by targeting the Pirates and giving red hot Taijuan Walker the nod. Additionally, look for Tyler Mahle to keep his strong season up and get the Reds a win against a strong Brewers team. Again, as always, fade the strongest pitching matchup of the night, avoiding the Padres line-up that has to face Max Scherzer.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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