In an effort to be held to as high a standard as possible, we will review the process and picks that were made to see where we crushed and where we could improve so that we can all grow and attack next week as even better DFS players. As the old saying goes – if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.
The Good
We were very interested in Bijan Robinson in these parts, and he put up a massive game, with 216 yards and 2 TDs on the ground while tacking on a couple of catches and 22 receiving yards. Even at a minimum multiplier, Robinson went out and did what we needed him to do. There’s plenty to be happy about here.
We also had a good time with Jaquarii Roberson. While he didn’t find the end zone, he did finally crack the 100 yard mark. Robinson put up a 6-135-0 line at a generous 1.6X multiplier. That will play any day of the week, but especially so on a Saturday main slate.
It was a good day for players named Evans. Tiyon Evans posted a slate-breaking 15-156-3 performance, and Zach Evans put up a respectable 15-113-1. Both of those games came with decent multipliers (1.45X and 1.25X respectively) and would have sent you soaring up your contest leaderboards.
The Bad
The Ole Miss – Alabama game did not live up to the hype. Lane Kiffin’s false bravado during his pre-game interview – where he cut things short with a sideline reporter and told us to get our popcorn ready – probably should have let us know something like this was coming. Unfortunately for Kiffin, the Rebels’ kernels just didn’t get to popping. The Crimson Tide barely broke a sweat as they ran Ole Miss out of the stadium. Jonathan Mingo’s injury did not open up any value, as none of the Rebels really stepped up in his absence. Because of that, we didn’t get the ceiling games we were expecting from the Alabama side. The trio of Bryce Young, Jameson Williams and John Metchie underwhelmed across the board.
Further, Xavier Worthy didn’t show up at all. It wasn’t for lack of trying, as he was targeted numerous times. Yet all of those targets resulted in just one catch for seven yards. If we were playing in an air yards contest, Worthy would have crushed (especially at a decent multiplier). Yet in the actual contests where he has to catch the ball to accrue points, he was a letdown.
The Ugly
Because we got the Ole Miss/Alabama game so wrong, we didn’t expect a big game from the Alabama running game. This may have been an oversight in process, and was partially an oversight in nuance, as the Alabama running game had been splitting carries, making all of its members less useful for DFS purposes. Not so on Saturday, with Brian Robinson going for 36-171-4. 36 carries? I guess Nick Saban wants another first round running back to come out of Alabama if he’s going to pound the rock with a single guy that much when it comes time for conference play.
We also, and I don’t really know what to tell you here, completely whiffed on Bo Melton. He was active, and from what I can tell, was targeted. He got the game script we were expecting (Buckeyes jump out to huge early lead) and WR production happened (Aaron Cruickshank went for 3-102-1), but Melton? Melton failed to record a single catch of the 28 completed passes that Rutgers had.
Conclusion
Is it worse to miss out on a huge performance from a guy you didn’t roster or get a complete dud from a guy you did roster? If you didn’t play Robinson and you did play Melton, not only can you spend some time pondering this, but you’re also not alone. Plenty of other DFS players made both of these decisions. The key is, figuring out where you went wrong and how you can improve.
In my mind, I didn’t put enough emphasis on the very real scenario where Bama blows Ole Miss out of the water, and that would lead to a ceiling game from the running game (i.e. Robinson). 36 carries is still an extremely high percentile outcome, but even a more modest successful game from Robinson should have been more of a possibility… Bad process and bad outcome here.
As for Melton… hard to know why the most heavily targeted WR all of a sudden goes missing in dream game script. Perhaps they viewed the game as out of hand in the second half, but where was he in the first half? Going to say this was a good process and absolute nut low outcome.
With all of that said, I hope you all made some money, and it’s on to next week!
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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