After a hard fought win against an injury-ravaged Eagles team, the Seahawks will be given a much tougher task on Sunday facing off against Aaron Rodgers and the 13-3 Packers. It is a great matchup of NFC franchises that have been two of the best in the past decade.
They have had great battles in the regular season and one epic game in the 2014 NFC title game. This will be another exciting chapter of the Packers-Seahawks rivalry and there are many fun fantasy options involved in this match-up. Here I’ll breakdown the top fantasy options for each position in this game. Let’s get to it!
Russell Wilson (1.15X)
In the early match-ups between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, Rodgers was the one-man show while Wilson was supported by a great running game. With Chris Carson out for the season due to a hip injury, those roles will be flipped for this game. Despite Marshawn Lynch coming out of retirement is a fun story, he is not someone you can rely on and neither is Travis Homer. Wilson had an MVP-caliber season this year throwing for 4,110 yards, 31 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions while putting up 20.8 fantasy points per game.
With the lack of running game, Wilson is going to be given many opportunities to make plays in this game which will result in more fantasy points. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers (1X) will not have to be relied upon nearly as much. Running back Aaron Jones is just as much of a part as the offense as Rodgers at this point. With Wilson also having a better multiplier at 1.15X, he is the play here.
Aaron Jones (1.1X)
Aaron Jones has been one of the biggest fantasy break-out stars of the season. He ran for 1,084 yards on 236 carries with a whopping 16 touchdowns. He was a factor catching the ball as well as recording 49 catches for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns. This gives him an average of 18.1 fantasy points per game. With this match-up against the Seahawks run defense, he is poised for another big day.
The Seahawks are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game (117.7), 28th in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.9) and 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed (22). The red zone stats work strongly in Jones’s favor as well. The Packers are the fourth-best red zone offense in the league when it comes to touchdown percentage (65%) while the Seahawks are 26th in the RedZone defense in that category (61%). All of these numbers point to Jones having a big day in the yardage department and with it highly likely he scores at least 1 touchdown. Lynch (2.2X) and Homer (2.35X) do not have multipliers nearly high enough be in consideration of taking one of them over Jones.
Davante Adams (1.5X)
I know I just went on about how this is going to be an Aaron Jones game for the Packers, so it seems silly to pick a Packers receiver here. What makes Adams the pick here is his insane consistency of high-volume targets. In eight of the last nine games, Rodgers has targeted him 10 times or more. He was targeted 127 times this season and keep in mind that he missed 4 games this season due to injury. If you average out his target rate over 16 games it would have put him at 169 which would have been second in the NFL only behind Michael Thomas.
Adams may not get the attention as a superstar-level receiver but he is exactly that when healthy in this Packers offense totaling 83 catches for 997 yards and 5 touchdowns in 12 games. The other major considerations here would go to either DK Metcalf (1.95X) or Tyler Lockett (1.6X). Those two just don’t simply have the volume of opportunities Adams has and their multipliers aren’t big enough to make up the difference.
Jimmy Graham (2.3X)
It has been a very long time since Jimmy Graham has been an elite tight end in the NFL. There was thought that he would return to that status last season joining Aaron Rodgers but that hasn’t happened. However, signs point to this being a game where something close to the vintage Graham returns.
He is playing his former team so that should give him some extra fire on top of the current circumstances. His former team has also had their fair share of struggles defending tight ends this season. The Seahawks are ranked 30th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. With no more Kam Chancellor or Earl Thomas roaming in the last level, that checks out.
With the lack of other receiving weapons outside of Adams, expect Graham to get a good helping of targets. On the other side, the match-up isn’t as favorable for Jacob Hollister (2.25X), as the Packers defense ranks 17th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Graham having the higher multiplier on top of the better matchup, he is the pick here.
Jason Myers (2.7X)
Both kickers are pretty much even scoring-wise with Myers scoring 7.3 fantasy points per game and Mason Crosby (2.45X) scoring 7.2 fantasy points per game, this comes down to opportunities. Based on the numbers, there is no question that Myers feels like the guy who will get the most.
The Packers have the fourth-best red zone offense and they are facing against a Seattle red zone defense that is ranked 26th. On the other side of the ball, Seattle has the ninth-best red zone offense facing off against the Packers’ sixth-ranked red zone defense. A major caveat to throw in there is Chris Carson played in 16 games which significantly helped Seattle’s red zone offense. Based on these numbers, Crosby will most likely be kicking extra points while Myers will be kicking field goals. With Myers a 2.7X multiplier compared to Crosby’s 2.4X, this is a no-brainer.
Jimmy Graham (3.45X)
This is definitely a high risk, high reward pick for a champion. There are many safer options to go with such as Aaron Jones (1.65X) and Davante Adams (2.25X). However, everything points to Graham having a good game against the Seahawks as I talked about in the tight end section. With Graham’s multiplier at 3.45X, this has a chance to be a massive hit for your champion spot. The reward outweighs the risk in this case.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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