It’s the holiday season and I’m sure all of you are as broke as I am right now. What better way to pay for those gifts than to take down some contests in SuperDraft? With the regular season coming to an end, teams are fighting for a playoff spot and looking to secure bye weeks. Let’s sift through the player pool and see who we like to go nuclear this week.
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Quarterbacks
1x – 1.3x
Aaron Rodgers (1.3x) at Detroit Lions
It seems like we haven’t seen Aaron Rodgers be the advertised “bad man” in a few years. We haven’t seen Rodgers put the team on his back like we were so used to seeing for most of the decade. BUT, this man gets to go up against the Lions and has historically had his way with them.
In 19 career games against Detroit, Rodgers has thrown for over 4,800 yards passing, 39 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. If we take his history against this team, add it to how awful the Lions defense has been this year AND the fact that if Green Bay wins they clinch a first-round bye you would be crazy not to consider this man in your lineups.
He hasn’t looked himself, but consider this a coming out party before the playoffs arrive.
1.35x – 1.65x
Carson Wentz (1.45x) Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Carson Wentz is averaging over 23 FPPG over the last four contests without his multiplier and has been extremely efficient over his last three. After Sunday’s win against the Dallas Cowboys, Wentz became the first player in NFL history to complete 30 or more passes in three straight games without throwing an interception.
Did we mention that the Eagles control their own destiny? A win on Sunday means that the Eagles take home the NFC East Title and host a first-round playoff game. Wentz has played well when it counts winning each of the last three contests.
I expect the Eagles to fly high in a high-scoring game despite the injuries to their skill players. Roll with Wentz against the G-Men who have given up multiple touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks in four straight games without a single interception to show for it.
1.7x – 2x
Gardner Minshew II (1.7x) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Gardner Minshew has been a solid starter this season regardless if it shows up in the win column or not. Since week 14, Minshew mania has had a good run throwing for a total of four touchdowns without an interception. Even though the Jaguars are not making the playoffs, Minshew has extra incentive to play well in the last week of the regular season.
Jacksonville with have to make a decision next season whether to start Nick Foles – if he’s healthy – or ride with the aforementioned Minshew. The latter is the kind of guy who is going to give 110% on every play and it has shown this year by throwing 18 touchdowns and only five picks. He’ll have a good matchup against the Colts who have been generous to opposing quarterbacks.
If you take out last Sunday’s game against Will Grier and the Panthers, in the last five games the Colts’ defense have allowed 14 passing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Finding a reliable guy this deep in the multiplier can be tough but sometimes you might find some who can catch fire.
Running Backs
1x – 1.3x
Ezekiel Elliot (1.3x) Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
Ezekiel Elliot is going to be in for a feast this Sunday against the porous Washington run defense. The Skins have allowed an opposing running back to gain over 120 yards on the ground in three consecutive weeks and given up five scores to the position over that span and a whopping 495 yards rushing. Opposing running backs also have a total of 237 yards receiving against Washington in that span.
Up until week 14 when the streak began, the Redskins had only allowed one opposing back to gain over 100 yards rushing – Ezekiel Elliot. The former Buckeye scurried for 111 yards and a score on 23 carries in a week-two win.
Before last week’s stinker at the Eagles, Elliot was on a tear rushing for over 200 yards and four touchdowns the previous two weeks combined. Look for Zeke to take advantage on Sunday with the Cowboy’s playoff hopes still alive.
1.35x – 1.65x
Alvin Kamara (1.45x) New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
After an amazing fantasy season last year, Alvin Kamara has had a down year especially in the touchdown category. Last season, the dynamic back had a total of 18 touchdowns which is down to four going into the last week of the season. However, he is still on the same pace when it comes to total yards per game.
Last season Kamara had eight games where he totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage and this season he has six games as such. If he is having the same usage and success in terms of yards, touchdowns will undoubtedly come. I do not expect Kamara to end the season with four total touchdowns and neither do the Saints.
Look for Kamara to shred the Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season – over 145 per game.
1.7x – 2x
Sony Michel (1.75x) New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
When Sony Michel runs for over 60 yards the Patriots record is 17-0. If I know this stat, so does the coaching staff. Michel has had an up and down year due to his offensive line, but they have been much better of late.
It’s not often you can get a guy who has 40 carries over the last two weeks for almost 200 yards rushing at a 1.75x multiplier. On top of that, he is running against a Miami defense who has given up seven-100 yard rushing games this season to opposing running backs. Michel was close to being the eighth when he ran for 83 yards and a score in week three against this same defense.
Michel, with the juice of his multiplier combined with his touches and opposing defense is looking at a 30+ point performance.
Wide Receivers
1x – 1.3x
Davante Adams (1.25x) Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
With a lot of great options in this tier of the multiplier, I’m riding with Davante Adams. After his foot injury that plagued him for a month, he is at full strength as of late. Adams has seen a total of 29 targets in the past two weeks, caught 20 balls for over 200 yards and added a touchdown to top it off.
More than half of those numbers were put up against the middle-of-the-pack Vikings secondary on Monday which means that Adams will have an easier time with the lowly Lions defense on a short week. Adams did not get to go against the Lions in their first matchup due to injury and he has to salivating for this opportunity.
This secondary has given up seven passing touchdowns in the past four weeks and has given up the most yards passing to opposing offenses this season. I expect Adams to have a floor of 25 fantasy points this week including his multiplier.
1.35x – 1.65x
John Brown (1.55x) Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
With the New York Jets possessing the second-best rushing defense in the league, the Bills might be forced to throw more in this game. John “Smoke” Brown, who leads the Bills in targets, receptions, yards receiving and touchdowns, could be in for a big workload.
The Jets have allowed four touchdowns to opposing wideouts in their last two contests and are undoubtedly dreading going up against Brown for a second time this season – he torched the New York secondary for 7/123/1 in their meeting in week two.
After being held to one catch last weekend, although it was a 53-yard score, Brown should get back on track Sunday without Stephon Gilmore there to shadow him.
1.7x – 2x
Steven Sims Jr. (1.8x) Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Steven Sims Jr. has carved out a nice spot for himself in the Redskins offense the last couple of weeks. In those games he has seen double digit targets in each and brought down three touchdowns total. Even though Case Keenum might get the start over Dwayne Haskins Jr., I wouldn’t worry. Keenum was effective in his time last week completing over 72% of his passes and hooking up with Sims for his only touchdown.
The Cowboys secondary has proven to be beatable as of late ranking ninth-worst in passing yards allowed over their last three. They’ve also allowed eight touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over their last six and allowed two the last time these teams met.
Look for Sims to continue to see targets in a game where the Redskins should be trailing.
Tight Ends
1x – 1.3x
Tyler Higbee (1.15x) Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Because tight ends are so hit or miss, we’re gonna stick with the hits and give you two picks for the Sunday slate. Are any of you surprised that I’m taking Tyler Higbee here? Or that I’m taking a tight end against the Cardinals? You shouldn’t be because Higbee is the hottest tight end going and he’s opposite the team that can’t defend a tight end if their franchise depended on it.
Over the last four games Higbee has been targeted 44 times and has no less than seven receptions and 104 yards receiving in those contests. He has only found the end zone once in that span but the usage is hard to pass up.
Do I even need to mention how bad the Cardinals are against tight ends? I talk about it every week. If you don’t know by now, they’re dead last in every metric against the position and it isn’t even close.
1.35x – 1.65x
Dallas Goedert (1.35x) Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Dallas Goedert saw a career high in targets, receptions and yards in Sunday’s win against the Cowboys posting a stat line of 9/91/1. Part of that had to do with Zach Ertz missing some time due to a rib injury, but he was getting targeted while Ertz was still the game. This clearly shows that the lack of healthy weapons for the Eagles has affected their game planning.
With Ertz’ availability up in the air for this Sunday, Goedert could see the same volume as he did last week when he was targeted 12 times. But, even if Ertz does play, Goedert is a viable play and should see targets similar to a WR2.
I love Goedert in this spot and Carson Wentz seems to feel the same way.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
