There’s only two weeks left in the regular season and this is where we see teams decide if they are going to show up or quit. Looking at the matchups that some of these skill players have has me seeing green and makes my mouth water. With a lot of my picks hitting in the 1.35x-2x range last week, I wanted to focus on the high risk-high reward plays on Sunday.
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Quarterbacks
1.35x – 1.65x
Drew Lock (1.65) vs. Detroit Lions
Drew Lock through up a stinker last week against the Chiefs, but that was in the snow. The conditions in that game were tough for a player making their third start in the NFL. This Sunday Lock gets to play against the atrocious Lions defense.
This is the same defense that allowed Jameis Winston to throw for over 450 yards last weekend and things aren’t getting better for the 31st-ranked pass defense in the league. Although Lock had a rough Sunday in the snow, there is a lot to like about the young signal caller.
He was able to throw for over 400 yards passing and five touchdowns over his first two starts with his team winning both contests. At 1.65x I love Lock to have a comeback game against a defense that has flat out quit.
1.7x – 2x
Dwayne Haskins Jr. (1.75x) vs. New York Giants
We had the rookie signal-caller on our list last week and he showed up and played his best game as a pro. Haskins finished the game with over 250 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions giving him 34.27 fantasy points with his multiplier.
Haskins threw up a duck when he played the Giants in week four in his first NFL action, but his play has evolved over the course of the season and his chemistry with his former college teammate Terry McLaurin has blossomed. No team is worse defending the pass on the road than the New York Giants who are allowing an average of 311 yards passing per road contest and have allowed eight opposing quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against them.
Haskins is a sneaky-good play this weekend against this horrid secondary and a former-Buckeye stack is not a bad play either.
Running Backs
1.35x – 1.65x
Austin Ekeler (1.6x) vs. Oakland Raiders
With Melvin Gordon getting benched in last weeks loss to the Vikings, Austin Ekeler is in a great spot at 1.6x in his upcoming matchup with the Raiders. Ekeler has a total of 11 touchdowns this season which ranks him eighth amongst skill players in the NFL.
Although Oakland ranks near the middle of the pack when it comes to run defense, they are not stout by any means against the run. A lot of their numbers in that department are skewed because of how bad they are at defending the pass and teams decide to attack their secondary instead. With that being said, among NFL running backs, Ekeler is second league wide in receptions and first in touchdowns receiving.
I love Ekeler to surpass over 150 total yards and to find the end zone in week 16.
1.7x – 2x
Patrick Laird (1.75x) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Anybody who was watching the Patriots offense take on the Bengals last week said out loud, ‘why aren’t they running the ball?’ The Bengals’ rush defense is the worst in the league and have allowed four opposing running backs to rush for 100 yards. They’ve also allowed four others to gain over 80 yards on the ground.
I wasn’t on the Patrick Laird train when it left the station but at 1.75x how can you not be? In his limited time in the Dolphins’ backfield he hasn’t ran for over 50 yards and has only found the end zone once but that’s what you get when you are trying to target high-value plays.
He could share time with rookie Myles Gaskin (1.9x) but I expect this game to be close and both backs with have a chance to gash this defense.
Wide Receivers
1.35x – 1.65x
Courtland Sutton (1.45x) vs. Detroit Lions
If Drew Lock is going to have a comeback game, so is Courtland Sutton. In the three games that Lock has started under center for the Broncos, Sutton has seen a team-high 23 targets and catching two touchdowns.
The Lions have allowed six touchdowns to opposing receivers in the past three weeks with most of them coming from 20 yards or more. Sutton is a perfect play against this secondary because he has 34 receptions of 20 yards or more and nine of 40 yards or more.
A Lock and Sutton stack is a LOCK this Sunday.
1.7x – 2x
Curtis Samuel (1.7x) at Indianapolis Colts
This might be my biggest reach of the year with Samuel questionable with a knee injury and rookie Will Grier making his first NFL start, but Samuel is the type of receiver that is perfect for easing a quarterback into a game. His bread and butter are quick passes and jet sweeps that allow him to get into open space.
With an average target distance under 15 yards, Samuel is built for this kind of situation. I would not be surprised if they run a few plays for him out of the gate to get Grier’s confidence up. With all of the talk surrounding the Colts’ defense at the beginning of the year they seem to be breaking down at the tail end of the season allowing 11 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in their last five games.
Tread lightly and pay attention to his injury situation, but Samuel should be considered for your main slate lineup on Sunday.
Tight Ends
1.35x – 1.65x
Jacob Hollister (1.5x) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Death, taxes and start your tight ends against the Cardinals. Arizona is the only team to average over one touch down allowed against opposing tight ends. They are also the only defense to allow double-digit points to opposing tight ends and that average is more than four points greater than the next-worst team.
Hollister is averaging over six targets per game in the past six weeks and and the Seahawks would be foolish not to focus on getting Hollister the ball. He hasn’t found the end zone in four weeks but that means he’s due for a score.
1.7x – 2x
Josh Hill (1.75x) at Tennessee Titans
This range for tight ends is scraping the bottom of the barrel so I’ll go with a guy who has found the end zone in two straight games – enter Josh Hill.
He isn’t going to wow you with athleticism and doesn’t see many targets, but when he does, they’re in the red zone. The Saints have so many weapons you have to worry about with Michael Thomas, Jared Cook, Tedd Ginn Jr. etc. that Hill gets lost near the goal line.
Tennessee gives up points to opposing tight ends ranking seventh-worst in fantasy points allowed to the position and have allowed scores to tight ends in two of their last three games. If you want to go contrarian in a lineup give Hill a roster spot.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
