We’ve got a great 6 game slate for you tonight on SuperDraft! With the NBA playoffs approaching, we’re entering the territory where teams who have clinched a playoff spot will start to rest normal rotation players to avoid any last minute injuries, so make sure you check on the status of your lineup before lock. Let’s see who the best plays and fades are for tonight’s games.
Steph Curry (1.05x), Kent Bazemore (1.85x) – It is a phenomenal matchup for Warriors players, as they travel to New Orleans to face the uptempo Pelicans. The Pels play reasonably good defense, their 110.3 average offensive rating allowed of the last 30 days ranks towards the bottom of teams on tonight’s slate, but they play so fast that they end up allowing a lot of points – their +4.71 net pace over the past month is the highest on tonight’s slate, their 114.2 points allowed per game over the past month is the second highest on tonight’s slate.
The matchup is particularly good for Curry & Bazemore – the Pelicans allow the most fantasy points above expectation to opposing Point Guards (like Curry) and Small Forwards (like Bazemore who plays a SG/SF flex role). We’re currently projecting Wiggins in, if he were to be ruled out these two would get even more of a projection boost. Curry’s usage of late has been staggering – in past 17 games he’s had a usage rate below 30% in only one game, a usage rate above 40% in six games. Bazemore’s role has been a bit volatile night-to-night, minutes oscillating between the high 20s & low 30s, but with Oubre out tonight he feels like a good bet to get 30+ minutes.
Julius Randle (1.2x) – Randle’s got massive usage, a great matchup, and an intriguing price all working in his favor tonight. The usage on Randle has been discussed ad nauseum on this page – he’s likely to be good for nearly 40 minutes, 30%+ usage. Memphis is a great matchup, their 114.94 points allowed per game over the past month is the highest on the slate. All this should add up to a guy that is about 0.1x or so lower than his current 1.2x price tag.
Nikola Vucevic (1.25x) – Center is looking like the strongest position on the slate as of now (perhaps inactives could change that closer to lock), and there are some difficult decisions to make in the 1-1.25 range. The other Nikola (Jokic), Capela, and Gobert all make for strong considerations. We’re a bit higher (a very small bit) on Vucevic. Vucevic will have an offensive role (usage, minutes) similar to that of Jokic, but has the price point of Capela & Gobert. Granted Capela/Gobert offer a bit more defensive & rebounding upside, but it is hard to ignore Vucevic’s high 20’s/low 30’s usage at 1.25x.
Andre Drummond, Jonas Valanciunas (1.2x) – It is a tough slate too roster guys like Drummond & Valanciunas given the strength of the Center position, particularly in the 1-1.25x range. Since Anthony Davis has returned from injury, Drummond’s role has shrunk a bit, Valanciunas has never really had a huge role, and has made more sense in the 1.3-1.4 range.
Over the past week plus, Drummond & JV have been playing some of the fewest minutes among their multiplier tier, their usage has been lower than all but Rudy Gobert (who has an insane 8.4% block rate).
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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