Every Tuesday during the NFL season, I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week I will be breaking down and analyzing that night’s slate of NBA games. Tomorrow I will be returning to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap adding an extra layer to the lineup-building process. It’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports we play and analyze. With that being the case, finding the best value, or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlated lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
The Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves (1.1x score multiplier)
Early on, the center position looks like a runaway contest between Towns and Nikola Vuceivc. Both have solid matchups, and while Vuc has a 1.2x multiplier, I still lean KAT in a matchup against Golden State. Unlike Vucevic, with KAT you don’t need to worry about anyone stealing his usage. He has had a 23% usage rate or higher in every game this season. Vucevic is still a strong play, but we have seen several sub-18% usage games from him this season. For this reason, I lean Towns as my top Center.
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls (1.25x)
Part of the reason why Vucevic is taking such a backseat is because of the continued assertion of LaVine. He has posted usage rates of 27% or more in every game but one this season and has attempted no fewer than 16 shots in any game. The matchup against Dallas could lead to some fireworks for LaVine here who has a generous 1.25x multiplier.
Jerami Grant, Detroit Pistons (1.45x)
Grant hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but the appealing part is that even with Cade Cunningham’s presence, Grant has still had a usage rate of over 26.5% since the debut of Cunningham. That said, this is a fantastic matchup against the Rockets, and a 1.45x multiplier is very juicy. Giannis is also in play as the top forward of the night, but I wanted to mix it up with someone with a better multiplier.
To sum things up, the top end options are very solid, with KAT, Giannis Antetokounmpo and even Steph Curry providing high upside options despite low multipliers, however the mid-tier — featuring guys like Zach LaVine and Jerami Grant, who have solid multipliers — is also very strong Wednesday.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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