Welcome to my weekly MLB SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week I will be bringing this article to SuperDraft to break down and analyze the slate of MLB games for the night, as well as a review of the article the following day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap adding an extra layer to the lineup building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier. With baseball being a sport with a ton of variance, it is difficult to find players with extremely safe floors, even the best players in the game will have games where they produce 0 fantasy points.
However, the absence of a salary cap also gives us the flexibility to roster any player since we don’t have to worry about those restrictions. This means we can still “stack,” or pair several players from the same team in order to achieve correlation in fantasy point scoring and upside. But we can also treat the players with the higher multiplier as a priority. Now, let’s dive right into the slate.
As always, be sure to monitor weather issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is in the starting lineup before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets (2x multiplier)
Carlos Carrasco has returned from a lengthy injury absence and had his ups and downs. However, a matchup against the Marlins is a great place to get right. Carrasco has a 2x multiplier, which is the same number that inferior pitchers like Mitch Keller, Keegan Thompson and Chi Chi González sit at for this slate. The Miami projected starting lineup features five hitters (not including the pitcher) with a 25% K% or higher against RHPs this year.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (1.95x)
McClanahan has been very good this year, and while this matchup against the Red Sox is typically a very tough one, the Red Sox will be without one of their top hitters Xander Bogaerts, who was placed on the COVID-19 list. Additionally, many of the top hitters for this Red Sox team are LHHs, specifically Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo. Against LHHs this year, McClanahan has a 28% K%, a 49% ground-ball rate and has allowed just a .143 ISO. I would be willing to take a shot on McClanahan on this slate even if it were a fully healthy Red Sox lineup because it is a fairly weak slate of pitching where he is likely the most talented pitcher on the board, but also because he is in his home ballpark, which is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB.
Freddie Freeman (1.1x) and Austin Riley (1.35x), Atlanta Braves
The Braves are in a fantastic spot as they get to face one of the worst pitchers in baseball, while also playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the MLB. Chi Chi González has an awful 13% K% while inducing ground balls just 37% of the time. He is going to be in trouble if he can’t keep the ball on the ground against this loaded Braves offense in Coors Field. Other Braves are also in play — Adam Duvall (1.4x), Joc Pederson (1.2x) and Dansby Swanson (1.1x) would be my favorites. Jorge Soler is also an appealing option, but with a multiplier of just 1.05x, I lean other Braves here.
Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs (1.6x)
Wisdom has cooled down a bit after having back-to-back multi-homer games last week, but a matchup against Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller could mean more great results. So far this year, Wisdom has a .314
ISO and a .367 wOBA against RHPs, while Keller is allowing a .213 ISO and a 46% hard-contact rate to opposing RHHs this season.
Thursdays are always a lighter day around baseball with so many teams having travel days, so the Thursday pitching slate is less impressive than some. You’ll be building mostly around Carlos Carrasco and Shane McClanahan. On the hitting side, it’s going to be Braves-heavy, and Patrick Wisdom should get back to the good side. Good luck on the slate.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.