In the first night of baseball since the All-Star game, a lot of well-rested teams are primed to make their move at a playoff run. With a lot of strong pitching tonight, we’ll walk through which guys to take advantage of, and which pitchers to target with offensive stacks.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Both Kevin Gausman & Chris Bassitt have been scratched from their games. Please refer to the projections below for top pitchers following this news.
Pitchers
Chris Bassitt (1.85x) – SP – OAK vs CLE –
Bassitt has been dominant in the first half of the MLB season. His 10-2 record is good for a tie for 3rd in the MLB, and his 3.28 ERA and 118K’s are both top 25 in the MLB as well. Despite a few weaker outings against strong opponents, Bassitt has shown an ability to dominate weaker offenses, coming off of a 7 inning, 4 hits, 1 earned run win against the Texas Rangers.
The Cleveland Indians offense has been really weak this season, they’re team batting average and OBP is bottom five in the MLB. With a -200 line in Vegas, Bassitt has monster win equity, and the chance to put up an elite performance against a deceivingly weaker offensive team. Look for Bassitt to get the job done against the Indians tonight.
Kevin Gausman (1.8x) – SP – SFG at STL –
Gausman has been unbelievable through the first half of the season. His 1.73 ERA and .82 WHIP are 2nd best in the MLB, and his 133 strikeouts are good for the 7th best in the MLB. Gausman’s whiff rate this season has been 30.8% which is well above the 22.8% slate average, and he gets a match-up tonight against the Cardinals who are towards the bottom in all team batting categories.
Despite the Cardinals having long-time stud Adam Wainwright on the hill, the Giants are significant favorites in Vegas tonight, offering significant win equity for Gausman. Gausman is coming off of a nice start before the All-Star break where he went 6 innings, with 4 hits, 1 earned run and 9k’s in a win. Look for him to put up an even better performance tonight against a weak Cardinals offense.
Hitters
Los Angeles Dodgers Stacks (Max Muncy 1.2x, Will Smith 1.4x, Chris Taylor 1.4x, Justin Turner 1.2x) at Colorado Rockies –
The Projections are all over the Dodgers tonight, who get a favorable matchup in Coors Field against Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has a 17.1% whiff rate, compared to the slate average of 22.8%, and with the hard-hitting Dodger’s offense, they are getting projected to put up some big numbers.
Vegas has this over-under at a massive 11.5 runs, and the Dodgers as significant favorites, which means they’re expecting a lot of runs out of this LA offense. The top of the Dodgers order has been solid this season, look for these guys to put up some big numbers tonight in one of the best hitting ballparks in the league.
Fades
Cleveland Indians Stacks (Franmil Reyes 1.25x, Oscar Mercado 1.4x, Bobby Bradley 1.8x) at Oakland Athletics –
As we often do, tonight we’re fading a pitching match-up we’re high on. We already alluded to the strength of Chris Bassitt going for the Athletics tonight. The combination of Bassitt’s strength, along with the struggling Indian’s offense leads to steering clear of them tonight on the road. While the above guys pose the least value, steer clear of the whole line-up and look elsewhere for offensive production tonight.
Projections
In the first night back since the All-Star break, a lot of teams have some of their stronger pitching going tonight. We’ll take advantage of that with Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman who both have favorable match-ups tonight as the ace for their teams. We’ll be careful to avoid these top pitchers when looking for offensive production tonight, giving the lean to the Dodgers who get to hit in the thin air in Colorado tonight.
