Every week during the NBA season, I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week, I will be breaking down and analyzing that night’s slate of NBA games and returning the next day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap, adding an extra layer to the lineup building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports we play and analyze. With that being the case, finding the best value, or highest projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlated lineups. For example, iftwo players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
The Plays
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat (1.5x score multiplier)
The Heat are still very shorthanded with Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo out, so Herro should benefit from that vacated usage and production. Tuesday night with those two out, Herro played 36 minutes and took 19 shots, accounting for 32 points, six rebounds and three assists. The 1.5x multiplier is an added bonus for a guy with a massive ceiling when he gets the time and usage.
Hamidou Diallo, Detroit Pistons (1.65x)
Diallo is also benefitting from new-found time and usage with several players out for the Pistons. Diallo has always been a pretty solid per-minute producer but has never gotten massive minutes consistently, but he has now played 34-plus minutes in three straight and 30-plus in his last four games. Additionally, he has taken at least 10 shots in each of the last four, including 19 last game.
Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas Mavericks (1.25x)
Porzingis continues to have a ton of usage without Luka Doncic, and he now has a great matchup against the fast-paced, bad defensive Kings team. Porzingis has now attempted 16-plus shots in eight of his last nine games. The volume will be there, especially in a pace-up spot for him and the Mavs. The 1.25x is a luxury here for a guy who has 60-plus upside before the multiplier every night. Last game he had 65-plus before the multiplier, so that is the kind of ceiling we get with Porzingis.
I have been finding some success recently at really keying in on guys with the great multipliers, It is super easy to get in several superstars because of the no-salary structure. But with all of these players being ruled out, three are constantly guys stepping into better roles than expected, and their multiplier remains higher because of the news that is coming in after the multipliers were set.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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