Every week during the NBA season, I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week, I will be breaking down and analyzing that night’s slate of NBA games and returning the next day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap, adding an extra layer to the lineup building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports we play and analyze. With that being the case, finding the best value, or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlated lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
The Plays
James Harden, Brooklyn Nets (1.05x score multiplier)
It’s a great spot for Harden against his former team, the Houston Rockets, as Houston plays at a fast pace and struggles defensively. I am a bit concerned about a potential blowout, but if this game stays close you can expect a 38- to 40-minute ceiling from Harden, which could lead to lots of production.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Brooklyn Bets (1.65x)
Weird that on a 13-game slate our first two plays are from the same game. However, LMA also has the same great matchup Harden does, but he also has a very nice 1.65x multiplier. The Nets have recently turned to Aldridge as their primary center. Guys like Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap and Nic Claxton are little to no threats for Aldridge’s time.
Jaren Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies (1.35x)
Jackson has seen some nice uptick in volume and production as Ja Morant is sidelined with an injury. That should continue here in a matchup against the Mavs who have struggled against big men in terms of fantasy production. Per our FTN Daily splits tool, with Morant off the floor this season, Jackson has a 33% usage rate, and is averaging 6.5 more fantasy points per game.
Overall, on these monster slates, the number one thing to keep in mind is adjusting to news that breaks. Monday’s slate featured 10 games with over 100 players on injury reports across the league. If Wednesday is going to be similar to that, being prepared for those adjustments will be vital.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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