Every week during the NBA season, I’ll bring you my NBA SuperDraft breakdown. Once a week, I will be breaking down and analyzing that night’s slate of NBA games and returning the next day to recap the results.
With the unique twist of the projection “multiplier,” rather than the standard salary cap, adding an extra layer to the lineup building process, it’s important to measure a player’s upside in comparison to their multiplier.
Basketball is typically the easiest sport to project due to the lower amount of variance compared to other DFS sports we play and analyze. With that being the case, finding the best value, or best-projected scores after the multiplier should be priority one. However, we also want to be sure to avoid building negatively correlated lineups. For example, if two players will eat into each other’s productions/opportunities they will often have a negative correlation.
As always, be sure to monitor injury issues and make sure you are confirming that each player listed in the article is playing before rostering them in your SuperDraft lineups.
The Plays
Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs (1.2x score multiplier)
Murray has been doing it all for this team. He is averaging over 1.3 standard fantasy points per minute (standard being without a multiplier) and has a 25% usage rate this season. Murray is coming off a triple-double last game, which was his third of the year and second in the last four games. Atlanta is playing much slower than they were at the start of last season, as they rank 20th in pace, but their defense has struggled as they are in the bottom five of defensive efficiency.
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (1.15x)
LaMelo has arguably been the most impressive player in the NBA this season. It does seem like he is making massive strides, and even better for fantasy, the minutes are now being unleashed. He has played 35-plus minutes in eight of his last 10 games. This is a fantastic matchup for the second-year star, as the Magic are 28th in defense and 12th in pace.
CJ McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers (1.3x)
McCollum had a nice night Tuesday, although it did get cut a bit short due to the Blazer blowing out the Nuggets. He has a great matchup in this one as the Kings are top six in pace and bottom five in defense. It is hard to ask for a more perfect storm than being in a spot where you should expect more volume in a pace up spot, against a team playing poor defense. The 1.3x multiplier is also very enticing for McCollum.
Overall, a lot of my top interest is in those three guards I just mentioned, Murray and McCollum have very nice multipliers for their matchups and what they have been doing this season, and without a multiplier, Ball projects as the second-highest scorer of the slate for me, so his multiplier being at 1.15x is just an added bonus.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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