The first two games in Brooklyn were an absolute embarrassment for the Milwaukee Bucks. They got blown out in both games in which the Nets did not have James Harden and from a SuperDraft stand-point did provide great plays. Meanwhile in Utah, Donovan Mitchell went crazy for 45 points in Game 1. Will these things change tonight? Let’s get to the top picks!
Donovan Mitchell (1.2x) – With Conley expected out tonight, Utah’s offense should again center around and run through Donovan Mitchell. We saw Mitchell explode for 45 points on 30 (!!!) field goal attempts with Conley out in Game 1. No Conley has been a good indicator for Mitchell this year, he is averaging 10 extra fantasy points per game in games that Conley has missed, in large part due to higher usage (+2.15%), more minutes (+1.35 mpg), and a higher assist rate (+8%).
Khris Middleton (1.25x) – There are some really enticing names on the slate at the Forward position: Giannis, Durant, PG13, and Kawhi. But don’t sleep on Middleton, he’s got the best multiplier of these Forwards, and Bucks have a significantly higher implied total than the Clippers whose Forwards are most similarly priced to Middleton (118.75 vs. 110). Middleton has taken 20+ shot attempts in each of the first two games in this series, but shot a paltry 30% combined across the two games – lower than any single-game field goal percentage from round one. If Middleton’s scoring efficiency regresses and he continues to shoot at high volume he could be in for a big night.
Rudy Gobert (1.25x) – There aren’t a whole lot of productive alternatives at the Center position tonight (with guys like Embiid, Jokic & Ayton on an off night). Gobert is kinda the preferred Center option by default, Brook Lopez is the only other Center who we can project reasonable minutes for with much confidence. Gobert offers elite per-minute productivity as well (1.25 fantasy points per minute compared to Lopez’ 0.94), while Lopez has a nice 1.6x multiplier, the fact that Gobert has a solid 1.25x multiplier makes it tough to envision him catching the Stifle Tower – his 28% multiplier bump doesn’t cover Gobert’s per-minute productive advantage (32%) and Gobert can probably be expected to play ~20% more minutes than Lopez too.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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